The WWE After Survivor Series (25/11/19)
Ever since the most recent Saudi Arabian sellout show — I mean that in the most negative connotation possible — the WWE has been focused on building up or some might argue propping up its NXT brand (I say "propping up" because AEW has been winning the ratings war thus far). As a huge fan of NXT, I’ve got zero problem with that, but it it leaves casual fans wondering about the pecking order in the WWE. These last few weeks have been a mosh pit of run-ins, brawls and insta-feuds. That’s not to say the build up has been bad; it’s just been rushed and, at times, confusing. And, some of the results have been difficult to digest. So after NXT Takeover: War Games 3 and Survivor Series, here are some lingering questions, along with criticisms and praise.
On the Same Level
As a huge Adam Cole fan, I was not sad to see him go over on Daniel Bryan, but that sure seemed like an uber-quick ascension. Here, was the champion, but perhaps not the face of NXT, going over on a multiple time WWE Champ. The same thing happened against Seth Rollins. Sure, the message was these guys are all on the same level, but that ran counter to every single previous promotion of talent from NXT to Raw or SMACKDOWN as all but, perhaps Asuka, Charlotte Flair, Finn Balor and to a lesser extent Kevin Owens, were made to work their way up the ladder in mid card matches before some reached the upper card.
This sudden elevation came without warning. There was no commentary about how the NXT folks were as good, if not better, than the established brands. And, how was Fox handling the free promotion of an "inferior" brand on a competitor network. This can’t have been the plan when Fox cut its billion dollar check.
Inconsistencies
WWE Creative has done a fair job of keeping its history straight and of reminding fans of past feuds. It hinted at Daniel Bryan’s betrayal of Bray Wyatt back when the Yes Movement was born, but was it holding back replaying that dramatic footage to further punish Luke Harper? Seriously, why didn't they show video of Bryan betraying Wyatt (if they showed it I missed it), the WWE got caught in a few unexplainable situations this weekend.
Was it really necessary to stage a War Games the day before Survivor Series? That just muddied the waters tremendously. First, how were Rhea Ripley and Candice LeRae able to team with Bianca Belair and Io Shirai hours after beating the holy hell out of each other in WarGames. That made no sense. (At least they didn’t repeat that with the NXT Men’s team). It was also tough to watch the Street Profits team with the OC after their recent/current feud.
The juxtaposition of the women’s WarGames and the women’s 3-way women’s match pointed out some conflicts. The Women’s War Games match was generally well done, but the pacing was off and the high spots weren’t all that impressive. It was a well-executed Dakota Kai heel turn (excellent viciousness and great commentary as usual by Mauro Ranallo) and even having the undermanned team win the match was fine. But, they gave the pin on the unstoppable Shayna Baszler so easily, it seemed like an afterthought, like yawn here’s Baszler getting pinned again. I understand the desire to elevate Ripley, but it shouldn’t have come in this unbelievable fashion.
And, then in the Women's Main Event, Bayley dominated Baszler (but not Lynch) only for Baszler to pick up the win and then to see Lynch regain her heat seconds after Baszler’s win. So, is the invincible Baszler now ranked 4th behind Ripley, Bayley and Lynch? And, Baszler was not shown feeling any ill effects from the War Games match the night before. It all just muddied the waters. The money matches are Baszler-Lynch or Baszler-Rousey, Ripley-Flait or Baszler-Flair. Sorry, but the money match does not involve Bayley.
Undisputed?
The UE foursome suffered a painful loss in WarGames and then its tag champs also lost the next night. The Men’s WarGames featured some excellent ring work, but two spots — the Panama Sun on the metal divider and the final spot looked very dangerous and should not be repeated. I know Ciampa did everything he could to protect Cole, but there’s no need to expose a top rising star to that amount of danger. The outcome also tarnished the UE shine, a bit. Giving a win to Roderick Strong over AJ Styles and Shinsuke just further confused the pecking order.
The three way dance between Killian Dain, Pete Dunne and Damian Priest was a bit underwhelming on Takeover. With three capable workers, I expected more from the match. Dunne wasn’t allowed to showcase his reversals or his British style as much as he could have. By contrast, the SS match between Dunne and Cole was outstanding. They both sold their lingering injuries from the night before and they hit their high spots flawlessly and with great timing. The commentators should have sold this as Dunne being too inexperienced and established this as a future feud in a year or so. Alas, there was no Mauro on commentary.
Whither Kevin Owens
The addition of Kevin Owens to the WarGames match was confusing at best. Ok, it made sense that he wanted some revenge, but was there an actual relationship between Owens and Ciampa. Owens worked his usual stellar match, but he should have had more time or taken the pin for his team? And, most critically, is Owens back full-time in NXT? Even his promo the next night with Rollins confused his status. Owens is simply too valuable and too big a star to waste in limbo. It would be a huge coup, however, were Owens to return to NXT.
Hits and Misses
Let’s start with the Misses.
- Toni Who? Toni Storm was inserted into the NXT Women’s SS Team with almost zero explanation. And, they gave her no back story and thus, no context. Was she a heel or a face? Casual fans had no way of knowing.
- Shirai-Sane. This is a dream pairing between former tag partners. Imagine the psycho drama: Shirai was the scorned partner left behind by Sane. Sure, they were both working heel, but with the right commentary, Shirai could have gotten way over. They teased the confrontation several times, but, in the end, the final product was a watered-down version of the their best. Sad.
- Cheating to Win. Ripley was facing the same long odds she faced the night before at WarGames, yet, this time she relied on Shirai and LeRae’s weak interference to win? Huh?
- The Faked Injury. The injuries allegedly suffered by LeRae and Ripley were confusing at best. The injuries were never shown on camera and looked far from stretcher jobs. At one point, LeRae looked perfectly fine to continue. This was so confusing and poorly executed.
- Green Mist. First, Asuka’s constant use of the Green Mist is overdone and masks her brilliance as a wrestler. Second, her early use of the mist on Charlotte Flair looks to be a creative way to protect both wrestlers, but it came so early in the match, you almost forgot 2 of the top 7 female wrestlers in the world were in the match. And, was the heat between Flair and Asuka so strong that they couldn’t shelve their issues long enough to work the match?
- Zero Build-up. There was almost zero build-up for the match between the Fiend and Daniel Bryan. There were insufficient callbacks to Bryan’s betrayal of the Wyatt Family (and the concomitant start of the Yes Movement). And, Bryan’s “mental instability” promo was cringeworthy. That said, the match was delicious.
- Mishandling Walter. No one got a bigger pop on any SS Men’s Team than Walter. And, he was cast as NXT’s equal to Braun and Drew MacIntyre, which is heady territory. Then, after a move or two, he was unceremoniously pinned. Uhh, keep in mind, Walter was protected in a win over Kushida and he’s never been pinned, so we’re giving away pinfalls on Walter now??? Terrible booking.
- Shorty G’s Push. For months, Creative has booked Shorty G as an upper mid card staple despite being saddled with a horrific character. It’s so bad, I’ve forgotten his real fake name. Even though he got in a few nice spots, Gable was the second elimination.
- Owens’ Push. What in the hell are they doing with Owens? He comes off a huge feud with Shane only to . . . .flounder. He’s switched to Raw and then. . . .nothing. His motivation is questioned and yet he's eliminated very early in the match. Crappy booking.
- Corbin-Reigns. We get it, Corbin hates Reigns and vise versa, but their interactions during the match except for the ending were confusing and weak. What caused Reigns to snap when he finally did?
- Done to Death. The very smart Chicago crowd quite properly shat all over the done to death Roman Reigns push. And, why was Seth Rollins clearing the ring only to attack Reigns.
- Mysterio’s Massacre. There was zero chance that Rey Mysterio was going to prevail over Brock Lesnar, even with a crappy-looking iron bat and even with his son by his side. This was just pure crap. The iron bat Mysterio wielded looked like a wiffle ball bat taped in aluminum foil. And, it’s just so strange seeing Rey’s large son by his side. They don't look like they belong together.
- Bayley. Look, Bayley is an elite wrestler, of that there can be little argument. But, her new look is off-putting. It makes her look like—well I can’t come up with a parallel, it just makes her look bad. Nothing about her look screams heel or face or even wrestler. And, I discussed above the fact that she got way too much offense in for someone who was going to be pinned.
- Lynch Heat. Again, I discussed how it was wrong to immediately rob Baszler of her heat.
- Booking Braun. Look, this has to stop. The WWE books Braun like an unstoppable force only for him to be counted out or beaten by a small dude. This guy needs an extended run on top lest he become a comedy act.
HITS.
- Banks Boss. Sasha Banks was stellar in the Women’s Series match. While others had moments of excellence, only the Boss could claim sustained excellence.
- NXT’s Women's Win. It came off as unexpected, at least up until they suffered those pesky injuries (and just why was Candice LeRae working heel here?).
- AJ Styles! Yet again, Styles showed why he’s one of the very best in the world and Shinsuke is no slouch. Strong kept up and showed he’s pretty damn good except for a spot or two that came off sloppy. Because Styles and Shinsuke have wrestled so much, they needed the dynamic of having a third man in the match.
- Cole vs. Dunne. As discussed above, this was a showcase for two young stallions. Cole has ascended to the pantheon where he can wrestle with the greats and not miss a beat. He shouldn’t tarry long in NXT. Dunne is a future champion. Can you imagine Dunne vs. Strong, Dunne vs. O’Reilly or Fish, Dunne vs. Velveteen Dream? I can.
- Bryan Returns. Let’s be honest, no one thought Bryan was beating the Fiend, but man what a match anyway. Bathed in red light, watching Bryan summon the power of the yes, it seemed like an iconic moment. Bryan remains one of the best if not the best wrestler in the world. Bryan can still go and you want him to have one more run as the leader of the Yes with a big belt. As the Fiend, Bray Wyatt is slowly mastering his character, adding nuance and learning how to wrestle like the Undertaker. He's over huge.
- Ciampa and Lee. Obviously, Tommasso Ciampa is awesome, although he escaped punishment for stealing Orton’s draping DDT. At various points he showed off his excellent execution. We should all bask in the glory that is the phenomenal Keith Lee. For a man that looks like that to move like that just doesn’t seem possible. He moves like a cruiserweight yet strikes like a super heavyweight. He resembles a hybrid of Shrek and the Hulk. The WWE knows what it has in Lee and it wisely elevated him.
All things considered and adding in the fact that the Survivor Series is one of my least favorite formats, there were some high points. NXT Takeover was also definitely watchable. Still, there are many questions that need answers ASAP.
MY 2018 DRAFT GRADES REVISITED (25/11/19) -- in bold & underline
NBA DRAFT GRADES (23-6-18)
Atlanta Hawks --B (Hard to grade because Young is a hit or miss player and he doesn't fit in with Schroder. The defensive liabilities are mind-blowing. Hurter seems a value pick and really like Spellman's upside, reminds me of a young Draymond Green only taller. The addition of a decent pick next year is good value for passing on Doncic and Jackson). So, I was a bit low here. Young has emerged as a Top 7-8 point guard and a future All-NBA player. Atlanta traded Schroder to clear space and also traded Spellman who still could be a rotation player. Still, will they regret passing on Doncic who is a future MVP.
Boston Celtics -- B+ (Williams has talent and will learn from Horford) Too high. Horford's no longer here to teach Robert Williams and he looks to be a 9-10th man.
Brooklyn Nets -- C (Nets landed three future projects, solid for where they picked). Close. Bad trade though.
Charlotte Hornets -- B- (Hornets essentially traded down one spot to pick up Devonta Graham who reminds a little bit of Kemba Walker. Miles Bridges will contribute as a rotation player). A bit low. Graham has emerged as a budding star. Bridges is a contributor, so I was mostly right, especially comparing Graham to Kemba.
Chicago Bulls -- B+ (Like Carter (one of the elite 8, but Hutchison duplicates Markanen's skill set a bit, right?). A bit too high on Wendell Carter who has not been as productive as I predicted.
Cleveland Cavaliers -- A- (Sexton is a rock star at guard, could emerge as next Kyrie). Almost on the money. Sexton is a keeper and a future All-Star.
Dallas Mavs -- A (Great pickup of Doncic, but paid for it. Brunson can play 20 mpg immediately. Like upside of Spalding). Yep.
Denver Nuggets -- A (How's that happen? They get an elite 8 at 14? Other picks are crapshoot). This is incomplete. Michael Porter has shown flashes but struggles to get time.
Detroit Pistons -- D (Don't like picks upside). A bit too low. Bruce Brown has shown skills as a versatile player but he struggles on offense.
GSW -- C (Evans has skills,fills Ian Clark's spot?). Too high.
Houston Rockets -- C (Melton has upside). Nope.
Indiana Pacers -- C (This Holiday isn't as good as the others). Yep.
LA Clippers -- C/C- (Don't like the cost of getting SGA, not sure he's got much upside, like Robinson, but they have a full backcourt already and the guy they need to move is DeAndre Jordan. Should have burnt a pick on Porter or a big, like Robert Williams). I was wrong about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he's a keeper.
LA Lakers -- C+ (Wagner could keep improving and be a rotation guy, provides some Randle insurance but they're different players). I was right about Mo Wagner except the Wizards stole him.
Memphis Grizzlies -- B (Not a fan of Triple J, but has NBA body. Like Carter as a bulldog defender despite size). The grade was right, but Triple J is better than I first thought.
Miami Heat -- F+ (had no pick, couldn't buy their way in and then Pat Riley is quoted as saying the Heat are closed for business and the team of misfit toys will lumber along for a few more years). Yep.
Milwaukee Bucks -- B- (love Donte, but he's a boom/bust guy, has Donovan Mitchell-type skills). The jury is still out on the Delaware Michael Jordan. My Villanova bias colored this grade. He's shown flashes and he's contributing.
Minnesota Timberwolves -- C (Ehhh. KBD could contribute a bit though) Josh Okogie has contributed but it's too early to evaluate the grade which right now looks spot on.
New Orleans Pelicans -- D Yep.
New York Knicks -- C (Think I agree with fans who booed this pick. Reminds of a Michael Beasley-type, wait isn't he on your roster? Robinson is a good gamble. They needed a lead guard though). Maybe a bit low. Knox has shown flashes although he's on the outside this season. Mitchell Robinson was indeed a good gamble.
Oklahoma City Thunder -- D yep
Orlando Magic -- A (Like Bamba's present and future. He will change games right away. Frazier should have gone earlier, so decent value pick. They're still far away from competing). Oops. Bamba has not had the impact I envisioned and I don't know why.
Philadelphia 76ers -- D+ (muddled draft. I had Bridges as part of the Top 10, just a cut below the Elite 8. Bad move trading local boy (and his mom) away. Don't love Smith and 2021 is far away although with the Heat's trend, it might be a lottery pick. Don't understand Shamet unless he's an upgrade over Tj). So far I've been right, but Smith may still have upside. Shamet is a solid player just not on the Sixers.
Phoenix Suns -- A+ (Aced it with Ayton (although Doncic might be the better fit), loved the Bridges trade. Suns nabbed 2 starters). Too high, although Ayton is worth a B+. Bridges has shown flashes.
Portland Trail Blazers -- D- (Why? Do they have backcourt issues? Huh? More I think about it, the lower the grade. Should have taken Williams or Wagner). WRONG. Simons looks like a future starter, at the very least.
Sacramento Kings -- B+ (Like Bagley, but needs defensive help, oh that's why you have WCS to help him). This is very close to being spot on. Bagley is a very solid player.
San Antonio Spurs -- C+ (I like Walker, but he's boom or bust, there's no mid ground). Yep and so far he's been a bust.
Utah Jazz - B (Think Allen fits here nicely and think he can have a career like JJ Redick). A bit too high on Grayson Allen, but he's solid.
Washington Wizards -- C- (Why pick a guy that you already have, Brown models after Otto). Yep.
WAY TOO EARLY NBA ANALYSIS — (Adjusted after 13 Games) (21-11-19)
It’s far too early to properly analyze teams and players after 1-3 games. after all, after Day 1, the Suns, Timberwolves and Hornets were all in or tied for first. (They’ve since returned a bit closer to normalcy but all continue to defy predictions) Crazy. after Day 2, your MVP race would include Karl Anthony Towns, Lauri Markkanen and maybe Luke Kennard. (KAT has continued to ball out, although not an MVP level). But, you can use early data to support predictions.
- top 4. it’s crazy to think that for the last 4-5 years, no one cared about a top 4, only a top 2 and even then the other team was just a foil to the Warriors expected title run.
B. Philadelphia 76ers. They’re not complete, but they have a pretty easy path to the Finals. They have great defenders (Embiid, Horford — a sometime Giannis killer —, Simmons, Harris and Richardson, rookie Matisse Thybulle), great rebounding, very balanced scoring, exceptional passing and they’re very long. BUT (it’s capitalized for a reason), they don’t have enough depth or shooting, but that may be a buyout away. (The need for a shooter has become critical. The 76ers have struggled with too many inferior teams to wait until buyouts are allowed. The difficulty is there are so few teams truly out of contention and most don’t have an attractive shooter. Here are a few possibilities: Warriors (BURKS); Wizards (BERTANS, Isaiah Thomas, CJ Miles); Knicks (Kevin Knox); Pistons (Kennard); Cavaliers (Kevin Love — likely too expensive); Hawks (Kevin Huerter — likely untouchable, Evan Turner — been there, done that), VINCE CARTER); Pelicans (JJ REDICK — Pelicans likely think they’re still contenders). The likeliest and best deals are in all caps.
C. LA Lakers. This is a team that is more about their parts than the sum of them. They have 2 of the Top 8 players in the game. It’s that simple. And, one of those guys is a master at integrating parts to fit into his elite game. They lack consistent defenders although Danny Green and AD are top defenders. (I’m aware of their lofty defensive ranking. They have defended far better than I predicted, but some of their success is based on their weak as shit schedule). More troubling, their shooting which is critical to spacing with LeBron on the court is entirely dependent on Green unless Kyle Kuzma makes a huge jump. i also believe they will be beset by injuries. The Lakers do benefit from the easiest schedule in the League through mid-December, but to their credit they’ve handled those easy games easily.
D. Milwaukee Bucks. They only have Philly in their way. Sure, tthey’ll miss Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic, but they have a freak. They’ll need another piece, so expect a trade somewhere along the way. It’s this simple, they are always in the game because of Giannis. They have to be concerned about sustainability though. (Losing Khris Middleton to injury hasn’t hurt as much as you’d expect, but they can’t afford any other breakage.)
It’s a Make or Miss League with credit to ESPN’s The Jump for motivation and creativity.
Miss: Consistency. Lauri Markkanen erupts with 35 points on night 2 and then scores just 9 in each of games 2 and 3. (those fluctuations continue).
Make: Exaggeration. The greatest upset in the history of basketball happened when the Phoenix Suns beat the Clippers even though they’re the Suns and they were missing De’Andre Ayton and Ricky Rubio. (The actual greatest upset ever happened when Evansville toppled an over-rated No. 1, Kentucky).
Make: exaggeration part 2. The second greatest upset occurred when the Miami Heat beat the Bucks on the road without Jimmy Butler, James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Dwyane Wade, LeBron or Alonzo Mourning. (This is looking less and less like a huge upset. The 10-3 Heat have benefitted from an easy schedule but they did dissect Houston, leading them by nearly 50 during the game).
Miss: Humble Praise. a recent headline read “Suns’ transformation into smart, scrappy team continues. . . .” uhh, Mr. Ayton has a drug test suspension to dispel part of that headline. A smart franchise doesn’t give TJ Warren away. (Still, the Suns are 7-6 and have impressive wins under their belt. Monty Williams looks like Coach of the Year.)
Make: A phoenix. Speaking of a real life Phoenix, former MVP Derrick Rose has resurrected his career with several big-time outings including 31 points. Rose is an attractive target in then trade market, certified 100% FRESH.
Miss: No Competition. Lou Williams faces stiff 6th Man of the Year competition from his own teammate Harrell, Goran Dragic and Rose. Lou’s numbers have dipped and Dragic has been very good early this season.
Miss: A Plan. i thought the New York Knicks’ off season was really poor and it looks like I was right. Their run on power forwards means they won’t really know if Kevin Knox or Bobby Portis are good or just average. And, in the first three losses, I mean games, Dennis Smith, Jr. and Frank Ntilikina averaged less than 12 minutes and 1.5 points per game, combined. but, at least they’ve got Elfrid Payton. Their new slogan: “Don’t Trust The Process.” (I wrote that before the Knicks’ bizarre post-game press conference where they tried to throw coach Fizdale under the bus, saying they think the Knicks have the talent to succeed. In the last game, Smith and Ntilikina played substantially more minutes, but Knox had just 10. They continue to meander through the season in danger of setting a record.
Make: taking up where they left off. Luka Doncic and Trae Young continue their Southern rivalry. Night after Luka had 34, Iced T had 39. wow. (Taking nothing away from Young who has been an All-Star so far, Doncic is playing at an MVP level. An average night 35-11-10. He’s averaging damn near a triple double as a 20 year old). These 2 players have been amazing.
Miss: They are who we thought they were. the Wolves got off to a great start behind KAT. (The T-Wolves are a game over .500 and Andrew Wiggins has been very good in their 15 game stretch. We’ll see if they are a playoff or an also ran team). Thus far, the T-Wolves have urpy
Make: Youthful Exuberance. Coby White reeled off several big games and RJ Barrett had 21, 16 and 26 points. (This rookie class has been a massive surprise, causing me to question everything I know about basketball — Eric Paschall has been a revelation for the Warriors, averaging 17 a game, he’s slightly older though having played 4-5 years in college; Kendrick Nunn has lit up the Heat, averaging 18 a game and leading all rooks in steals, like Paschall he’s older; Tyler Herro — making me eat crow, he’s been an effective scorer for the Heat; Ja Morant, less a surprise than the others, has handled his business in Memphis averaging 18.5; Brandon Clarke has been beastlike for the Grizzlies, averaging 13 a game on 65% shooting).
Make: Surprises. The Cavs and Hornets both notched a win in Week 1. Those will be rare. (Not as rare as I thought for the Hornets who have been ignited by Kansas guard Devonta Graham, rookie PJ Washington and others. They’ve come back to earth though, going 6-9).
Make: Contract Year. once again Hassan Whiteside showed why he is an All Star when seeking a new contract. in his first game he had 16 points and a whopping 19 rebounds. Not to be outdone, Andre Drummond had 32 and 23, Brandon Ingram had 35 and josh Hart had 23.
Miss: Victor Oladipo. without their star, the Pacers started 0-2. They’ve climbed up to 8-6, but come back soon Vic.
All these great surprises and performances — James Harden averaging almost 39 PPG and Houston is playing great, the Celtics are outperforming expectations, as are the Raptors with ALL-NBA candidate Pascal Siakam. On the flip side, The Nets, Spurs and Trail Blazers are outside the playoffs. Though Kyrie Irving has balled, there are chemistry issues to go with injury issues. The Spurs have been a disappointment with DeRozan and Aldridge struggling to play well in the same games. But, no team has struggled to meet expectations worse than Portland. Perhaps Carmelo Anthony — WELCOME BACK — will supply points and answers. Remember Anything is Possible.
STOCKX WARNING!
most dates are listed in European fashion with day/month/year
STOCKX HACKED! (6/8/2019)
I rarely do this, but this one hits home and people need to know. Earlier this week Stockx, the large online reseller of sneakers and other fashion goods was hacked and the data of over 6 million people was compromised. Ok, this stuff happens, but the story is a bit bigger than a mere hacking. At first, Stockx hid the fact it had been hacked and only when reports began to dig did it admit it had been hacked. It says no customer financial information was compromised, but given the fact that Stockx initially concealed the hacking, how much confidence do you place in the company.
I also learned that Dan Gilbert, the owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers, was a co-founder of Stockx. Gilbert also owns Quicken Loans. Now there are no reports that Quicken has been hacked, but don't you think Stockx would have called upon the resources of Quicken when establishing its platform? That would have been a cheap way to get Stockx up and running. So, it doesn't take much to wonder if Quicken has been hacked.
NBA FREE AGENCY DECONSTRUCTED (4/7/19) [Before KAWHI LEONARD Signed]
After 5 years of dominance by the Golden State Warriors and a stretch of around 10 years of individual dominance by LeBron James, there is no clear favorite in the NBA. Now, if Kawhi Leonard joins the Los Angeles Lakers, that would not be true as the Lakers would be runaway favorites. Leonard is holding LeBron James’s ultimate legacy as possibly the best ever and the strength of the NBA’s entertainment value in his massive hands. Teams listed in no particular order
THERE’S GOLD IN THEM THAR HILLS
UTAH JAZZ
Utah finished 5th in the West last season, a small disappointment after a good 2017-18 year. The Jazz did not shoot well last season and their vaunted defense sprung leaks. Not satisfied with that, the Jazz took care of business, trading for Mike Conley with little impact on their team. The Jazz also signed vet Ed Davis for rebounding and defense. Then, the Jazz changed the game and signed Bojan Bogdanovic for 4/$73M. Bogdanovic is a superior three point shooter at 6’8”. He’s well above league average for 3 point shooting. They lost Jae Crowder, Ricky Rubio, Derrick Favors, assorted salary dumps (including the copier and Kyle Korver) and young Grayson Allen, along with draft picks. None of these departures matters.
OUTLOOK
The Jazz have a very balanced and modestly potent starting 5. Rudy Gobert—Bogdanovic—Joe Ingles—Donovan Mitchell—Mike Conley. That roster has more than adequate shooting range and distance, but only Mitchell can really create his own shot. The starters are good defenders. At one time, Conley was a tremendous on ball defender but those days are past. Mitchell and Bogdanovic are subpar defenders, but Mitchell has the athleticism to be a good defender. Here’s the real problem: lack of depth. The Jazz are top-heavy and few, if any, reserves inspire confidence. Depth can be fixed, so the Jazz can get this right. The Jazz upgraded from Rubio at the 1 (although Conley is 31 and has a ton of tread wear), upgraded for the most part in Bogdanovic but definitely hurt the bench. They also lack a star/finisher. Maybe Mitchell recaptures his rookie form and steals that role, but Conley’s no longer a candidate. The Jazz will contend for the #1 seed in the west. They won’t win the title, but they’ll remind fans of the Malone-Stockton days.
WE DID IT OUR WAY!
BROOKLYN NETS
No team landed 2 stars the caliber of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, like the Nets did. Their sudden ascension from the depths of post-Danny-Ainge-trade-purgatory has been astonishing. Basically the Nets have built not just through the draft, but through the dregs of the Draft. Unlike the Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers which couldn’t develop most of their lottery picks, the Nets developed Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert and others into near all-stars.
Last season, with zero expectations, the plucky underdog Nets earned the 6th seed and posed a stiff challenge to the Sixers in the playoffs. Without their run to the 6th seed, it’s unlikely they would have signed KD and Kyrie. If everyone is healthy in 2020-21, the Nets will likely be the prohibitive favorites for the “chip,” pending the Dynasty Killer, Kawhi's decision (i.e., unless he joins the Lakers). But, hold up New Yorkers, there are serious risks associated with these moves. The Nets are banking on 2 stars with major injury histories and they come with chemistry issues too. Mind you, any team would be idiotic not to take these chances -- oh sorry Knicks.
Either the pull of coming home or near it was so great or the desire to play with Kyrie so overpowering, it caused KD to bid adieu to a DYNASTY. Or, Durant felt the need to validate his career by trying to bring a title to the once-moribund Nets. Durant figured he didn’t need the extra $70 million that Golden State was offering. Or, the extra guaranteed year. A risk-averse agent would have explained to Durant that despite his freakish gifts, there is no blueprint for a player’s SUCCESSFUL return from an achilles tear. No player in NBA history has ever returned from this injury to match his prior level of play (including Dominique Wilkins). Many analysts are pooh-poohing the issue by noting KD isn’t a slashing scorer. While true, Durant needs to have a dependable and semblance of a decent first step or else teams will be able to sit on Durant’s jumper without any fear he can go around or by defenders.
There are also subtexts that relate to criticisms, character, legacies and the media. We’ve long known that Durant is somewhat immature as it relates to handling criticisms. He set up fake social media accounts to hype and defend himself (a Trumpian move), he constantly responds to the “comments” and he continually justifies the desire to join a super team, like the Warriors. Irony being what it is, once the next opportunity to leave presented itself, he joined a “super friend” and tried to create a new super team. If Durant wins his expected title with Kyrie the narrative won’t read much differently than his titles with the Warriors. Sure, the Nets don’t have the third and fourth stars like the Warriors, but they are a playoff team with talent; read a far cry from the Knicks. Also, Durant might have seriously underestimated New York’s infamous press scrutiny. I’m sure there are a lot of jilted Knicks fans in the media now with clear axes to grind. So, this superstar pairing is way more complicated than many have portrayed it. And, all of this leaves out Kyrie's complicated personality including his very public embrace of re-signing with Boston that lasted all of a losing streak.
Also, analysts are flaming Irving for bring bad chemistry to the Celtics, yet, in almost the same breath, they are arguing the Nets hugely upgraded by signing Irving by himself. Huh? The Nets overachieved (a bit as the bottom of the East was near dreadful this year) with great chemistry, chemistry that included low expectations, an underdog mentality and D’Angelo Russell, who we saw dancing with teammates after great plays. Does anyone see Irving dancing with the reserves? Nah. There may be no place like home, but home may not be all that great.
Then, there’s DeAndre Jordan. Many “Fanalysts” (not a typo) are heralding the addition of Jordan. Can somebody tell me how Jordan is still relevant? Or how he’s so much of an upgrade over Jarrett Allen? Last year’s stats show very little difference, except Jordan is a more efficient finisher and a better rebounder than Allen but a poorer defender and worse free throw shooter for his career. Jordan’s arrival will stunt Allen’s growth as they can’t both play at the same time.
OUTLOOK
Best case, the Nets are getting 2 top 12-15 players, with one having been on the verge of overtaking LeBron as No. 1 or 2. Worst case, injuries literally cripple the Nets along with infighting and/or just terrible chemistry. It’s hard to envision the worst case, but both Durant and Irving have missed (or will miss) nearly 2 seasons each with major injuries and what’s to say that doesn’t happen again. For this season, the Nets will easily be in the playoffs, but they aren’t legitimate title contenders. Also, ball dominance won’t be a huge issue this season, but after several years of having decent touches, Dinwiddie and LeVert won’t be as happy when they learn they aren’t seeing the ball as much as pre-KD. Moreover, in 2020, don’t expect Kyrie or KD to play more than 60 games because, well Kyrie never does, and KD won’t want to.
THERE’S A NEW SHERIFF LEAVING TOWN
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Based solely on advanced analytics, the Sixers should have tried hard to re-sign Jimmy Butler, the clutch king. Here’s the question though: are Josh Richardson and Al Horford more valuable to the Sixers than Butler. Imma say it’s an emphatic yes. The Sixers are title contenders today. They do, however, need to add a shooter or two.
Not learning the lesson that having three excellent shooters can propel your team, the Sixers started the season with a weaker team than 2017-18. In the season though, the comings and goings were head spinning. They came out of nowhere to steal disgruntled Jimmy Butler from Minnesota. They swooped in and got Tobias Harris at a steep price. And, they shipped out Markelle Fultz rather than be reminded daily of Danny Ainge’s fleecing. The Sixers though had the hardest decisions of any team to make this off-season. A sample size of 40 games just isn’t enough to decide if the formula would work.
At this point we don’t know if Butler wanted out of Philly or, if as reported, the Sixers weren’t offering Butler a max contract. We also don’t know Butler’s impact on team chemistry, because he didn’t seem to impede the Sixers from nearly knocking off the Raptors, but he’s been on teams with toxic locker rooms (coincidence or Butler's fault?). Most analysts are hingeing the Sixers’ success on Ben Simmons’ missing jump shot. Others are asking the relatively ridiculous question about who will close out games now that Butler’s gone (hint: he’s very tall, he’s very charismatic and he can drop step, dream shake or shoot a three!).
Here’s why the off-season has been so successful. First, with little guarantee that either Harris and/or Butler would re-sign, the Sixers persuaded the 26-year-old Harris to sign and take a haircut off the max contract. CHECK. Next, they got something out of Butler’s desire not to re-sign in the form of rising star Josh Richardson. CHECK. Richardson is a quality defender who is rangy, a better three point shooter than Butler and he’s just 25 (Butler is 29). Is Butler the better player? Sure, but Richardson is no slouch and he’s owed just $10.5 millionish per year for 3 years. This sequence of events allowed the Sixers to sign Al Horford. CHECK. I usually subscribe to the adage that the team that gets the bigger star in a deal wins, but here the combination of Richardson and Horford is better than Butler for more than talent reasons. And, the Sixers look like heroes if Butler didn't want to stay in Philly even if he got the max.
The Sixers have had issues when Joel Embiid is either injured or resting. Their cast of back-up centers last season (Mike Muscala, Amir Johnson, Boban, Greg Monroe) were only just a bit better than if Charles Barkley tried to mount a comeback. Horford gives the Sixers luxury insurance. Most nights Horford will play as a stretch 4. But, other times he’ll play the 5 and the team won’t miss too much. He’s a perfect solution to the Embiid risk. Oh, and he’s the best defender of Giannis Antetekumpo possibly other than Kawhi. This remains a very long starting rotation with one player at 6’6” and the rest 6’9” or taller. And, they’re all pretty mobile.
OUTLOOK
It’s bright. The Sixers would look much more potent with another proven shooter on their roster. They add last year’s first round pick Zhaire Smith, a guy thought to be a three-and-d player. They also add this year’s collection of draftees including Marial Shayok and Matisse Thybulle. The starting 5 looks like this: Simmons-Richardson-Harris-Horford-Embiid. That’s a very tall and long 5. They still need another shooter for which they have around $6 million in space. The Sixers should make the Eastern Conference finals at a minimum. They are my early pick in the Finals, but that’s before we know the likely pre-season rosters.
DRIVING A FERRARI ON BALD TIRES
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
No team rebounded from recent, fairly prolonged and deep losing, on and off-court, seemingly better than the Lakers. In one fell swoop, the Lakers gutted their team to add Anthony Davis. Without Kawhi, the Lakers have 3 players, but oh what a duo plus one: 2 of the league’s top 8 players — LBJ and AD — and a talented young shooter in Kyle Kuzma. And, further gutting allowed the Lakers to create space for a 3rd max player, like Kawhi. Many analysts would argue for adding multiple good players as opposed to having the NBA’s greatest super trio of all-time, just as many, if not more, would argue for the super trio. By deciding to wait on Kawhi (the only player apart from KD and Kyrie in this year’s free agency class that teams should wait on) there are few options left for the formidable Lakers. It must be noted that Kawhi's reported request to speak with Magic is a problem that rests at Rob Pelinka's doorstep. While Plink has done an admirable job of clearing cap space in recent days, he created a multitude of issues that may ultimately cost them Kawhi Leonard.
Let’s assume there’s no Kawhi, the Lakers would be much improved but full of holes, mainly depth, guard play and shooting. AD is a tremendous rim protecting defender who can switch out on many guards to blunt an opposing team’s pick-and-roll game. He's a damn unicorn because he can score everywhere on the court although he’s a below average 3 point shooter for his career. AD can also facilitate play with a respectable 4 assists per game last year. He’s a future MVP. LBJ and AD fit well together as neither occupies the same space as the other and neither really needs the ball in his hands to affect it. And, AD helps with LBJ’s aging and less-than-exceptional defense. Kuzma gives both players a player to make outside shots, but they still need much more shooting than just Kuzma. The only knock on AD is his targeted trade demand that severely wounded the Pelicans, established a terrible precedent and exposed AD's lack of loyalty? His love of the easy way out -- comparisons need to be drawn to KD's decision to join the Warriors? His lack of integrity?
That said, if they swing and miss on Kawhi, what’s left? Signing Demarcus “Boogie” Cousins would seem like a no brainer, but that team just couldn’t cover perimeter players. Also, Cousins would be a poor defensive fit and neither LBJ nor Kuzma is a willing or better than average defender. The Lakers should sign Danny Green unless he joins Kawhi wherever he goes. They should sign Kyle Korver who will likely be bought out by Phoenix, but he adds to the defensive issues. Luring Dwyane Wade and/or Carmelo out of retirement would actually be good basketball moves.
OUTLOOK
Without Kawhi, this is merely a West contender. With him, they would be huge favorites, like the Warriors were two years ago. But, the Lakers have numerous issues. First, AD has had injuries in his past and LBJ had his first injury of any concern this year. I predict one of the two will be injured in the next 2 seasons. Second, the Lakers still haven’t improved their outside shooting and now there are only a handful of snipers left unsigned. Third, the Lakers don’t have a guard on their roster which is problematic from, you know, a basketball standpoint. Even though LBJ can bring the ball up and “act” as a pseudo-guard, they desperately need real guards. Still, if LBJ holds up and resembles his former greatness, this is a “team” that can win it all in the next 4 years.
HE’S NO MICHAEL CARTER-WILLIAMS
INDIANA PACERS
The Pacers’ grade is entirely dependent on how you view former Rookie-of-the-Year Malcolm Brogdon. If his very impressive 90-50-40 stat line from last year impresses you, then the cost to get him — mainly the Pacers' 2020 first round pick — seems reasonable. If you are worried about his injury history and his questionable athleticism, then he's not worth it. But, the Pacers did moire than one move: there were significant losses with quiet replacements. They lose Bogdanovic, point guards Darren Collison (retirement), Thaddeus Young and Cory Joseph (both FAs).
The Pacers are definitely on the rise, but caution accompanies them. In order to get Brogdon, the Pacers give up a first round pick which should be a non-lottery, high teens, low 20s pick. Brogdon is a fine player, a solid shooter, a cerebral guard with some athletic limitations and an injury history. He is a winner though, like a Jalen Brunson. The Pacers don’t have a 1-for-1 replacement for Young, but with Domantas Sabonis already on the roster, Young is a bit superfluous. The Pacers signed Jeremy Lamb for reasonable money to help replace Bogdanovic. Lamb isn’t a pure or consistent sharp shooter but he does bring more of a slash game and good athleticism to the roster. And, lost a bit in the highlights of free agency, the Pacers acquired the highly productive TJ Warren from Phoenix. The Suns obviously didn’t need a high teens scorer who could rebound and defend. Most importantly, the Pacers return all-star Victor Oladipo.
OUTLOOK
The Pacers roll out this formidable roster: Myles Turner—Sabonis—Warren/Lamb—Oladipo—Brogdon. It's an unselfish bunch that can defend and shoot. A healthy Oladipo is a borderline All-NBA player. And, the Pacers have a solid, if young, bench. The Pacers are considering trading Myles Turner which would seem a colossal mistake, even though Turner slows them down on the fast break and it’s hard to play Turner and Sabonis together for defensive reasons. Their mindset (which should remind many of similar thinking in Boston this past year) is that the Pacers held on to their relatively high standing after Oladipo went down with injury. This thinking can be seriously flawed, as Kyrie is nowhere near Indiana. All of the Pacers’ top 6 guys are productive, but Oladipo is the unquestioned alpha dog. If he returns close to “good as new,” the Pacers should be a threat. But, Brogdon, Warren and Lamb are not playoff-tested.
Faced with serious roster losses, the Pacers put together a game plan and executed it. The debate over Lamb and Brogdon will continue and it will likely cause a shift in play style. Coach McMillan already shifted the Pacers’ play style from methodical to fast striking. We’ll have to see if they adopt a slower pace which would help ease Oladipo back into form and, if so, whether Brogdon adapts. The Pacers are a 3-5th seed and could easily make the Finals.
THOSE GUYS LOOK FAMILIAR
SAN ANTONIO SPURS & DENVER NUGGETS
Sometimes teams get better just by getting their injured or young players to return and hopefully improve (and as we see below sometimes that’s disastrous). For the Spurs and Nuggets, hope for improvement comes almost entirely from within.
The Spurs barely made the playoffs last year but that was a good result given their injuries. They re-signed productive vet Rudy Gay (similarly the Nuggets picked up the option on productive but high-priced Paul Millsap). The Spurs return 2 young guards in Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker who have significant talent. Murray was thought of as a possible all-star, admittedly that’s a biased analysis. He is unquestionably talented, but in his place, Derrick White played great ball in the post season. Through the draft, the Spurs added Keldon Johnson who had 29 in his Summer League debut. There are a number of players in the mix who could contribute right away. They would pair with DeMar DeRozan at the 2, Rudy Gay at the 3 and LaMarcus Aldridge at the 5. It will be fun to see how those young players coalesce under Pop. Despite the intrigue, the Spurs are fighting for the 8th seed. If their young guards develop, they will have many trade options and I expect them to be active.
The Nuggets return or add two very intriguing players. First, the Nuggets drafted 7’2” Bol Bol, the rare center who can contribute on the deep perimeter. Still skinny and raw, Bol will be fun to watch. If nothing else, he’ll be an exceptional rim protector. Second, the Nuggets finally unveil Michael Porter, Jr., the top high schooler in 2017 who was hurt in college and stayed out all last season. Porter was thought to be a smaller LeBron in high school. The Nuggets were already a top contender and they return all of their key players. They will fight for a 2-5 seed.
SOMETIMES YOU GET WHAT YOU WANT
MIAMI HEAT
A few years ago, Jimmy Butler declared the one thing he never wanted to wear was a Miami Heat jersey. Now, it’s the only thing he wants to wear. Butler could have been with 2 stone cold playoff lock teams in Houston or Philly; instead he demanded a sign-and-trade to recently crappy Miami. Since LBJ left and Chris Bosh became disabled, Pat Riley, has been desperate to rebuild with a legit star. Miraculously, Riley was able to land a star without a dollar of cap room, trade away a malcontent with a horrible contract in Hassan Whiteside and make 2 trades with limited assets.
To get Butler, the Heat lost Richardson, Whiteside and a draft pick or two. In the Whiteside deal, the Heat picked up Meyers Leonard who will back up Bam Adebayo. Against most odds the Heat kept Goran Dragic who was thought to be headed to Dallas to mentor friend and countryman Luka Doncic. Because Dallas pulled out of that deal at the last second, the Heat were able to execute a better deal.
OUTLOOK
Unfortunately, there’s not a lot left in Miami, not for at least 1-2 years. Their rotation will be: Goran Dragic (unless he’s sent to the glue factory)—Dion Waiters (the most delusional player in NBA history)—Butler—James Johnson—Bam Adebayo. It’s a team with exceptional depth (Kelly Olynyk, Leonard, Tyler Herro, Justise Winslow), but limited talent and limited upside. You have to admire Riley’s wheeling and dealing until he lands a second star. If he does that this season it will be the greatest magic trick of all-time. The Heat will fight for the 8th seed unless they convince a recently-retired Heatle to give up wine for a few months.
WHOA NELLIE!
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
The Pelicans have been living their best life since they drafted Zion Williamson. Their fans have convinced themselves that they never had Anthony Davis anyway. New GM, David Griffin, did wonders in creating a fake market for AD and forcing the Lakers to sell their soul to trade for AD. These were the same scrubs that the Pelicans rejected a few months earlier but there was no competition to get him. The Knicks STUPIDLY refused to enter the bidding even though they were identified as a preferred landing spot for AD. The Celtics didn’t bid because AD was unwilling to re-sign with them and they didn't want a one season rental especially once they were sure that Kyrie was gone. So, the small triumph is that the Lakers kept their original offer on the table. The loss was that they could not pry Kuzma from the Lakers who I preferred over Ingram.
After the AD trade and landing Zion, the Pelicans signed JJ Redick to a reasonable deal. They also traded for vet Derrick Favors for negligible assets. Even though the Pelicans have cap space, I don’t blame Griffin for waiting out the rest of free agency, because the truth is the Pelicans have zero idea about what they have. Redick is a great shooter and consummate pro, but he’s a HUGE defensive liability and his status as leading veteran may be a bit overblown. Favors is still productive as a conventional big.
OUTLOOK
The Pelicans have Jrue Holiday at the 1, Redick at the 2-3, Brandon Ingram at the 3, Zion at the 3-4 and rookie Jaxson Hayes at the 5. Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart both have certain abilities but it’s hard to see where they fit. If Ball starts at the 1, Holiday moves to the 2 and offense becomes a problem because their 5, unless they use Favors there, doesn’t supply any offense. Defensively, Redick can’t guard his shadow; fortunately Ball is an advanced defender. This team is not a playoff team. They need to experiment, find out who can play and then make moves for next season. I would move Holiday, Redick and/or Favors to a playoff contender in exchange for a dynamic young scorer and picks. If Denver needs more offensive pop, Porter and/or Bol would be a good target.
THESE AREN’T THE JEDIS YOU’RE SEARCHING FOR
SACRAMENTO KINGS
The Kings flirted with the playoffs last season but couldn’t close the deal. Still, that dalliance rightfully drove Sacto fans wild. And, they now see great things on the horizon having re-signed Harrison Barnes, and signed Trevor Ariza, center Dewayne Dedmon and Cory Joseph. Let me be the first to prick the balloon. The goalpost just moved on the Kings as the West got significantly better among top tier teams with the Lakers, Jazz, Spurs and Nuggets improving. And, the Rockets, Clippers and Thunder stayed the same strong contenders with the Blazers and Warriors decreasing just a bit.
Plus, the Kings had Barnes down the stretch last season and he couldn’t push them over the line. Ariza is a nice addition, but age (34) is starting to be a factor. He’ll fill the Vince Carter role of veteran pro who can still play. He’s not the sic ‘em defender he was 2 years ago, but he can still play three-and-d. Joseph is a nice back-up point guard. Dedmon is an interesting story. Somehow, he developed a three point shot after years of not even attempting the shot. He shot 38% from 3, an amazing number. He averaged 11 and 8 for the Hawks, so he’ll be productive in some role for the Kings, replacing Willie Cauley-Stein.
OUTLOOK
For some teams just making the playoffs is a good and necessary goal, take the Orlando Magic. Much like the Magic last year, the Kings can contend for the last playoff spot, but that’s sort of their ceiling. They roll out: De’Aaron Fox—Buddy Hield—Barnes—Marvin Bagley—Dedmon in an intriguing lineup with very solid depth. If Fox, Hield and/or Bagley improve significantly, then this team can ease into 7th or 8th, but more likely they’ll feature in the lottery again. I won’t flame the Kings for trying to just make the playoffs.
JUNIOR’S TAKING A GAP YEAR
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
From a pure addition/subtraction standpoint the Warriors are losers in this offseason because they lost Durant when all is said and done. That many are writing off the Warriors is surprising given they return almost the same team that dominated in 2014-16 minus Andre Iguodala. The Warriors knew they were losing Durant (at some point in time) and once that became a fact, the Warriors shifted into Operation Screw Sentimentality. By squeezing DeAngelo Russell out in return for KD, the Warriors gave themselves an insurance policy. He slots in for Klay giving teams a reason not to double team Curry (at least not on every play).Then when Klay returns, Russell either continues to slot in or he’s moved.
There was a steep price to pay to obtain anything of value from Durant. Some believe Russell is not worth a max deal, but he’s only 23 years old and he hasn’t reached his ceiling. Yes, the Warriors lost first round picks, but if they remain competitive, those aren’t very worthwhile (and any trade of Russell could easily recoup at least one of those picks). The Warriors were forced to sacrifice Iguodala and that affects their chemistry and defense. But, during his post season book tour, Iguodala took a flamethrower to the Warriors claiming either a misdiagnosed injury or extreme coercion to play last post season. Frankly, the Warriors could not have welcomed him back. And, for all of his talents, Iguodala is aging and he hadn’t done anything to fix his flaws, such as his inexplicably poor free throw shooting. This postseason, Iguodala shot an appalling 38% on free throws.
The Warriors were able to re-sign Kevon Looney at a bargain price. Looney gives them something resembling rim protection, some rebounds and defense, including the ability to switch on pick-and-roll plays. Their draft wasn’t exceptional, but the pick of Eric Paschall could be excellent if he’s able to learn from and replicate what Draymond Green gives the Warriors. They signed Willie Cauley-Stein for the minimum, an excellent pick-up because he gives them true rim protection in a long body who can switch out on pick-and-rolls and catch lobs. He’ll average 6-12-2 (dunks-boards-blocks).
OUTLOOK
For now, the Warriors will look like this: Curry—Russell— (Klay Thompson)—Green—Looney. Curry and Russell will be challenged defensively so it remains to be seen if Russell makes just a pitstop, staying just until late January (he can’t be traded until later in the season) when he could be traded for a small forward assuming there are any that could approximate Durant (hint: there aren’t). The Warriors will remain a force as long as the trio of Curry-Klay-Draymond exist, but they are vulnerable and much work needs to go into rebuilding the depth and finding a solution to the Russell dilemma.
Most “fanalysts” are writing off the Warriors and that’s a mistake. If you’d been told the Warriors will return Curry-Klay-Green, you’d say they will be a very good, high seeded, title contender. And that’s what will happen sometime sooner than most players return from an ACL tear. The Warriors will lock up the 5th seed and go deep in the playoffs. They might just win it all in their gasp, er sorry “gap” year.
MONTY, I’LL TAKE DOOR NUMBER THREE
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
The Bucks had a clear choice in front of them: Run it back after having the league’s best record or go a different direction. They chose the run it back option. Assuming they were running it back, their next choice was which free agent should they re-sign. They chose wrong. They re-signed Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton. They also added Brook’s brother, Robin. But, they traded away Malcolm Brogdon and lost Nikola Mirotic, receiving draft compensation for Brogdon but nothing for Mirotic.
OUTLOOK
The Bucks will have a starting rotation of Eric Bledsoe—Middleton—Giannis MVP—Ersan Illyasova—Lopez. That’s a pretty decent roster. Several of those guys are very good defenders, namely Bledsoe and Giannis. And, they can all shoot except for Giannis. But, they need to replace nearly 30 points and depth. Young players like DJ Wilson, Pat Connaughton and Donte DiVincenzo will be required to step up or else the Bucks will slide. Left unsaid is a sense of deja vu with Coach Mike Budenholzer. He took Atlanta to a 60-22 record in his second season, just as he took the Bucks to the same record in his first season. But, Atlanta slid way down after that season and you have to wonder is that going to happen to Milwaukee this season. Basically, just how important and good were Brogdon and Mirotic? I see the Bucks sliding to 3rd behind the Sixers and a Kawhi-led Raptors. If no Kawhi, then 2d. That’s not bad because with Giannis, the Bucks might have enough to win it all. If Middleton doesn’t improve, then the Bucks will have heartache (and a new coach).
WHICH WAY DID HE GO?
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
The Clippers are an interesting team. Last year, they traded away their best player in Tobias Harris and despite this they made the playoffs and there they tested the Warriors. And, they come off this version of a triumph and emerge as a possible landing spot for Kawhi. Assuming they don’t sign Kawhi, the Clippers may be operating with a bit of irrational exuberance. They have nice pieces but not star pieces. They haven’t made any real signings except to bring back Pat Beverley and if Kawhi passes on them, they won’t have many (any?) options. They might sign Demarcus Cousins who would help them more than he would help the Lakers, but only marginally. I fear they gambled and lost.
OUTLOOK
In a very deep and competitive West, without Kawhi, the Clippers will be fighting for the last spot. Their lineup is: Beverley—Lou Williams/Landry Shamet—Mo Harkless—Danilo Galinari—Montrez Harrell. They are very deep with emerging youth in Shamet, Harrell and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their main issues are who is their finisher and what rotations are best for defense. They have several DOGS on defense (Alexander, Beverley and Harrell) combined with several defensive dogs (Williams, Galinari).
Still, the future is bright. They will have a max spot next season with Galinari leaving. They are a young, deep team that really needs a Kawhi pro. But, the Clippers probably took too much of a gamble and they will pay for it. If I’m management, I go all in and trade for Bradley Beal or Devin Booker. Without Kawhi, they are out of the playoffs. With him, they are a 2-3 seed.
TRADING BLOCK WHAT TRADING BLOCK? ARE YOU GOING TO BELIEVE YOUR LYIN’ EYES OR THE INTERNET?
HOUSTON ROCKETS
The Rockets are running it back. The spin masters will tell you they meant to run it back and after all who wouldn’t run it back after nearly beating the Warriors two years ago. The “Fanalysts” will tell you this is a great team that, of course, should run it back. The truth is the Rockets did not want to run it back.
Their GM tried like hell to trade all of their players after the team failed to beat the Warriors especially when they lost Durant to injury. Now those same trade bait players must return. You have Austin Rivers re-signing with the Rockets even though Chris Paul hated Rivers for the nepotism situation when both were with the Clippers. You have apparent friction between Paul and James Harden. You have a flawed team that never replaced its defensive stoppers. You have three key players all rumored to be traded in hopes of luring Jimmy Butler to Houston. And, you have Butler who wanted no part of Houston.
TRADE: The Wizards send Beal to the Rockets. The Rockets send Paul to the Lakers. The Wizards get Kuzma, Eric Gordon (or Clint Capela) and picks mostly from the Rockets. The Rockets get a star plus get out of the Paul contract. The Lakers get LBJ’s banana boat buddy. The Wizards get assets.
OUTLOOK
The Rockets were hopelessly capped out of the free agent market, a fact that frustrated the hell out of their GM. When the signing of Rivers is your marquee news, you’re having a bad year. Still, the Rockets core has one more push in them before the Paul contract morphs into laughably bad status. For all the doubters who wondered how Harden and Paul would coexist, you (and I) were all correct. The Rockets still challenge to win the West, but fall short of the Finals.
MOM, ISN’T THAT DERRICK ROSE?
DETROIT PISTONS
The Pistons weren’t expected to make any real moves in free agency and they delivered. But, they added Derrick Rose on a cap-friendly deal. Rose enjoyed a renaissance in Minnesota last season. Well, maybe he didn’t enjoy it, but it happened. Rose will bring stability to the Pistons, but they have glass ceiling limitations. The Pistons stars are very good players, but they aren’t good enough to climb over any of the better teams ahead of them.
OUTLOOK
It will be cold and grey in Detroit. Blake Griffin will get hurt. Rose and Andre Drummond will demand a trade. FACTS.They might make the playoffs.
FAKE NEWS WINNER
BOSTON CELTICS
In recent years, the Celtics have been that shining star on the hill, loaded with assets and one of the best GMs ever. They were beginning to build a loaded team which could bully the East for years. Then, poof, it was gone? Or is it? The Celtics “lost” 2 all-stars in Al Horford and Kyrie Irving plus rising star, Terry Rozier. The Celtics may also lose Marcus Morris and they previously traded away backup big, a hack superstar, Aaron Baynes. But, Danny Ainge was able to sign Kemba Walker and to a much lesser extent, Enes Kanter.
Many “Fanalysts” view the Celtics’ offseason as a win. Their thinking goes that Irving was a cancer. Kemba Walker is happy in Boston and thus he will be a better player than Kyrie. Enes Kanter’s career long defensive deficiencies will be cured by Celtics’ coach Brad Stevens. That’s next level spin, y’all.
Horford was an All-Star for a reason and Kanter comes closer to Baynes than Horford. Irving is better than Walker although there’s not a large gap between them. And, the Celtics did not replace Rozier. Also, no one except the players involved are remembering how Ainge dangled young assets in the Anthony Davis sweepstakes. It’s going to take more than a happy, smiling Kemba Walker to fix the Celtics.
OUTLOOK
The Celtics are still a viable contender in the East, but they’re closer to the 6th seed than the 1st. I see them around 5th in the East. They will start: Walker—Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown—Jayson Tatum—Gordon Hayward—Kanter. Their once deep bench is greatly thinned. Their defense and rebounding is suspect. Much of their season depends on Hayward’s improvement 2 years after his injury. They still have young talent in Brown and Tatum along with a few extra draft picks, but the picks that were supposed to be top 3 picks turned into fools’ gold. Expect Ainge to trade picks for talent if the Celtics are close.
WHAT DO YOU GET WHEN YOU CROSS AN OSTRICH AND A HAMSTER
ORLANDO MAGIC
The Magic were thrilled to announce to their fans that they were running it back, having re-signed their big free agents, Terence Ross and Nikola Vucevic. They made other moves too, but none included a point guard. The Magic made a late season push and shockingly made the playoffs, won one game and then went home. Why then would management think, hey that was great let’s run it back?
Many experts sized them up 3 years ago and said they desperately needed a point guard when it appeared the Elfrid Payton experiment was about to fail. Of course, the Magic said screw conventional and indeed all wisdom. They decided aging DJ Augustin is all they need. On top of these concerns, the Magic weren’t re-signing proven commodities.
Ross is the epitome of an enigma. He is a superlative athlete. But, for his career, he’d hovered around 10 points per game, until bumping it up to 15 this past season. He’s a good shooter from 3 averaging 37% for his career, but averaging just 42% overall. That’s not good. And, Ross gives you little apart from scoring although he’s an above average defender. Vucevic is an borderline all-star who also raised his numbers in a contract year. But, any player who gives a team 21 and 12 a game has to be re-signed, right? Well not if you drafted immense talent Mo Bamba the year before. Now Bamba, a young man, will see his minutes stay suppressed and his potential squelched. Vucevic also impacts wing Jonathan Isaac, who can, in a pinch, play the 5 as could Aaron Gordon. So, basically, the Magic have assembled a crew of 6’10+ big men for a game that revolves around guard play. Why? We also have no idea when the Markelle Fultz experiment will end or, in fact, begin?
OUTLOOK
All credit is due Coach Steve Clifford, but his intensity will wear off this season or next and the team will regress. Their unimpressive rotation of Augustin—Evan Fournier—Ross—Isaac—Vucevic is backed by a deep, decent bench.They may again sneak into the playoffs, but they will not reside there for long. Sorry. Time to trade.
I’VE FALLEN AND I CAN’T GET UP
NEW YORK KNICKS
Long ago, the New York Knicks sold their long-suffering but still delusional and arrogant fans on the trifecta of Zion—Kyrie—KD. None of those things happened. Those fans who gloated that they were getting that trifecta now need to wake up to the reality of living with Kyrie and KD across the river. The list of Knicks’ mistakes is long. A few reminders. They could have kept and re-signed unicorn Kristaps Porzingis. NOPE. They could have built through the draft when it appeared losing was going not be their hallmark, rather they signed Joacim Noah to a near max contract. NOPE. They could have signed a player with real talent like Demarcus Cousins. NOPE.
Uhh, now what? The Knicks decided to spend their money on one nice player (Julius Randle) and 6-7 role players. But to hear some Knicks fans, it was a masterstroke to sign Taj Gibson, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock, Wayne Ellington, Bobby Portis and others. Really? Wayne Ellington is a pro’s pro, but playoff chasing Miami cast him aside in their Tyler Johnson salary dump. And, all of these signees are going to do one thing — eat into the development of the Knicks’ real assets in young players like Dennis Smith, Jr., RJ Barrett, Alonzo Trier and Kevin Knox. Why would the Knicks clog up playing time with pros who are marginally better for the moment than their rookies. This was dumb.
OUTLOOK
The Knicks will win more games this year. They might actually start off well and fool their gullible fans into thinking they might actually contend. Ugh. The Knicks need to hope teams are interested in trading for these role players so their young players can try to develop. But, the Knicks will find a way to screw that up. The Knicks continue to suck.
SUBTRACTION BY ADDITION or DON'T TRADE WITH PAT RILEY
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
The Trailblazers which has been a very savvy organization in recent years just acquired a pig-in-a-poke. Rachel Nichols is fond of saying that when Danny Ainge is calling your GM, he shouldn’t answer the phone. Before Ainge, this applied to a man named Pat Riley. Sure, Moe Harkless and Meyers Leonard weren’t world beaters, but no one thought they were horrible teammates. The Blazers are about to find out what a real-life horrible teammate looks like. Hassan Whiteside is a supremely gifted head case who finds ways to quit in the middle of plays. Seriously. At least the Blazers didn’t tie up their cap room for next season.
The Blazers may have thought they were filling the hole left by their injured center, but they would have been better off with re-signing Enes Kanter and keeping Leonard. Ugh. The trade of Evan Turner for Kent Bazemore seems like a trade of each team’s disappointing wing. The Blazers let Seth Curry go without finding another shooter to replace him. And, then they signed Mario Hezonja?? He was not retained by the Knicks, a sure sign that he must really suck. He shot just 42% from the field last season and was even more abysmal from 3 point range.
OUTLOOK
The Blazers still have their dynamic duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Too bad, they added headaches in Whiteside, Hezonja and Rodney Hood. They will regress this season and Dame Lillard will finally start squawking for a trade. If either of the dynamic duo misses any significant length of time, they will miss the playoffs. I see them as a 5-7th seed.
AT WHAT POINT DO THEY TAKE AWAY YOUR LICENSE?
PHOENIX SUNS
The Suns made impossibly idiotic moves at the Draft, but their signing of Ricky Rubio seems like a positive move. He’ll bring professionalism to pair with young talent. A deeper dive though reveals the signing was next level dumb forcing them to divest real assets. From a pure talent perspective at the end of the year, the Suns probably weren’t that far off from being competitive; that’s all changed now. Allow me to explain.
At the Draft, the Suns felt the need to give a talented player away, sort of like a Prime Day for the NBA. They traded productive, young, cheap TJ Warren to the Pacers. They also threw in the No. 32 pick, a second round pick that is just 2 picks in. This is how the Pacers reacted: “the Pacers thought it was a joke, they didn’t think this was a serious offer.” It’s been reported that the Pacers GM suffered a compound fracture running to find a young person to teach him how to make a three-way call to get the NBA on the phone to approve the trade before the Suns’ executives awoke from his or her ayahuasca hallucination. The Suns could have gotten real value back for Warren, instead they gifted the 32nd pick to the Pacers. In another blog I excoriated the Suns for thinking they needed cap space for the imaginary big-time free agents they were going to land.
The Suns traded former 2017 No. 4 overall pick Josh Jackson, De’Anthony Melton and a high 2021 2d round pick to Memphis for Kyle Korver and a bunch of other crap. Now, no one is arguing Jackson is a great player, but he’s a 22 year old, 6’8” jumping jack who averaged 12 and 5 last year while improving his 3 point shooting to just below league average. Who wouldn’t take a chance of an athlete of this caliber? Phoenix. The Suns needed the cap space to fit in Rubio who they signed for around $17 million a season. We can debate the worth of Rubio, but the Suns aren’t near playoff contention hence they don’t need a vet like Rubio who has probably showed his ceiling. Rubio isn’t the kind of player who would appeal to a playoff contender that suffers a loss of their point guard because he’s not a big-time shooter, scorer or defender. Why the Suns didn’t try to nab a player like Lonzo Ball who still has upside is beyond me.
OUTLOOK
LOL. Since 2013, the Suns have had like 100 top 10 picks, only 2 remain and they’re both from last season. The Suns suck. DeAndre Ayton, Devin Booker and to a lesser extent Mikal Bridges, are all trapped in basketball purgatory. Those guys can play. The only real question for NBA “Fanalysts” is which owner is the worst of all time: Knicks’ James Dolan or the Suns Robert Sarver? Discuss.
DOES IT REALLY MATTER?
TIE: WASHINGTON WIZARDS & CLEVELAND CAVALIERS & MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES & MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Nothing any of these teams did can or will improve their chances to compete for a playoff spot for at least 2-3 seasons. FACTS. The Wizards are a shell of a team. This free agency period wasn’t really important because the Wizards really weren’t a player to sign anyone of importance (or talent). Still, they lack a GM, so even if there were minor moves to be made, the Wizards didn’t make them. Picking up Mo Wagner for free won’t move the needle an inch. The Wizards need a GM to implement a strategy that involves trading the insane John Wall contract and probably Bradley Beal.
The Cavaliers probably signed the top talent left at No. 5 in the Draft, when they picked Darius Garland, but pairing two 6’2” guards will hurt defensively. And, both are score first guards, with one, Garland, an injury risk. As expected the Caves were not players in free agency. They will have an asset in Kevin Love, even though his contract will be a massive impediment to a trade.
Memphis has been active dating to the trade deadline. Their trade of Marc Gasol yielded their recently re-signed center Jonas Valanciunas and young guard Delon Wright. They also received CJ Miles, a wing shooter (career 36% from 3) who might be trade bait at the deadline. The Grizzlies are trending up. They can roll out recent draftee Ja Morant at the 1, Jae Crowder or Grayson Allen at the 2, Jaren Jackson at the 3 or 4 and Valanciunas. Critically, the Grizzlies have attractive trade pieces in Wright, Crowder, Miles and even Valanciunas. They also landed a low risk, high reward player in Josh Jackson. If he's a 6'8" jumping jack who can shoot threes for the league average, then wheee! If not, he'll be waived by December.
Minnesota was up against the salary cap. Remember they preferred Andrew Wiggins and KAT on max salary deals to Jimmy Butler. Butler’s last team was a bounce away from possibly winning a title. And, the braintrust in Miami moved mountains to pay Butler the max deal. Just saying. Minnesota was able to add Jordan Bell, a casualty in the Warriors salary purge.
There are several teams that simply didn’t factor at all in free agency. The ATLANTA HAWKS are in a building stage and are solely concentrating on the draft (and the expiration of awful contracts). They are a lottery fixture but they have a few good pieces in Trae Young, DeAndre Hunter and John Collins. The CHICAGO BULLS are in a similar funk. Their path out revolves around three No. 7s — Coby White, Wendell Carter and Lauri Markkanen, all drafted with the 7th pick in successive years. Missing from that bunch is a true star. The CHARLOTTE HORNETS were huge losers, failing to re-sign Kemba even though they could have offered him $80 million more than Boston. Kemba said he’d take a discount, but he didn’t mean a $60 million discount. Ultimately, the Hornets knew they weren’t winning anything with Kemba and so Michael Jordan decided he wanted to save all of that Hanes Underwear money. The Hornets salvaged Terry Rozier in the deal, signing him at just under $20 million per annum. It'll be Rozier, fat Batum and a bunch of under-sized power forwards. Unfortunately, Michael Jordan remains the Jon Koncak of talent evaluators.
Quiet during the offseason, the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER occupy a different and loftier perch than any team mentioned here in the dregs. They will be a playoff contender and likely, a comfortable playoff lock. Hopelessly capped, they tried to trade Steven Adams, the very good center with the heavy contract. Still a core of Paul George, Russell Westbrook and Adams deserves mention. As Pat Beverley said, until the Thunder find shooters they are stuck in a Russell-sized rut. FACTS. How long until one or both realize the Oklahoma City dining scene is limited and one or both demands a trade to LA?
The DALLAS MAVERICKS aren’t going to the playoffs and they made a huge free agent signing, so why aren’t they dissected? The Kristaps Porzingis signing was pretty much settled when Dallas traded for him. Mark Cuban learned his lesson with previous free agencies and locked Porzingis in his basement until he signed his contract. He will pair well with Luka Doncic, but the Mavs don’t have enough to win big. They turned down the opportunity to nab Goran Dragic as part of the Jimmy Butler deal, a miss that will slow their growth by two years. Cuban will need to add PLAYERS to that core and soon before Kristaps gets bored or injured.
NBA DRAFT NOTES (21-6-19)
This year’s NBA draft was all about 3 talents. Anyone who tried to argue this is a deep draft was shining you on or trying to keep viewers on ESPN (Yes, you Jay Bilas who later had to admit the Draft was light on point guards and objectively was very light on Bigs). This is nearly as bad a draft as a few years ago when Malcolm Brogdon won the Rookie of the Year despite averaging less than 10 points a game. What saves this Draft is the three near mega-talents at the top and a bunch of potential rotation players thereafter.
Now how good are those three talents. Zion Williamson is a very good player, but he’s not on the same level as a LeBron James. But, it is not hyperbole to say Zion is the most eagerly awaited prospect since LBJ. Zion's dunks and feats of athletic prowess are the stuff of legend. And, for those who argue there’s never been a player like Zion, they are forgetting about Larry Johnson, GrandMama. Their games are very similar, both good shooters from the perimeter, both with good verticals, although Zion really can jump as high as anyone in the game. Zion won’t transform the game, but he’ll be a good pro assuming he stays in shape and avoids injuries.
Ja Morant reminds many of Russell Westbrook and athletically, that’s a fair comparison. Morant will average over 20 points a game by his second year, the only question is whether he’ll do it efficiently. He was dominant against lesser competition; now will his penchant for forcing it and turning the ball over catch up to him. My guess is he will have a career very similar to Trae Young.
RJ Barrett is a tough one to judge. As a high schooler, he was as dominant as any player in recent memory. He was just that damn good. But, in college, it’s not as if he disappointed, setting or nearing records for scoring by a Duke freshman. He just didn’t look as fast, as explosive or as efficient as he had a year before. I think playing with Zion affected him negatively even though he professed love for Zion. Although he’s been raised to be a pro, I wonder if the Knicks’ loser culture will rub off on him. He’s a very solid shooter, rebounds well and draws fouls like a 10 year vet. He can handle the ball but he’s not an excellent or willing passer. If he regains his explosiveness, he’ll be very good. With all that said, Barrett should easily average around 20 this year.
After these three premium talents, every other player either has at least one overriding question mark (or flaw) or has a low ceiling. That's not to say there aren't some good players here. At #4, Atlanta got a winner in DeAndre Hunter, but Hunter isn’t a dynamic scorer and it’s unclear if his defense is the product of Virginia’s excellent system. Reminds me of Shane Battier. It’s a good pick, but Hunter would be a better fit on a finished team, like the Bucks or Warriors. He’ll have to do too much in Atlanta.
At #6, Minnesota got a very good player in Jarrett Culver, but Culver sometimes came up small in big situations. He doesn’t shoot all that well from 3, but other than that he’s a good player. Still, pairing him with Andrew Wiggins may not be a good idea given questions about the lack of dog in Wiggins.
Chicago needed a true point guard and at #7 got mostly one in Coby White. White has fewer questions than most other players, although he’s slender, not a tremendous deep shooter and isn’t always a true facilitator. In short, Chicago got a guy who resembles a slightly less explosive, but maybe a better shooting Zach LaVine. Still, for this draft, it was a good pick. Despite picking at #7 in three straight Drafts, there doesn't seem to be a star in Chicago, just very nice complementary pieces.
I’m not going to comment on the Wizards pick of Rui Hachimura who is a fine scorer, because that team is so far removed from competing that his production will be inflated and the true test of his actual talent will be his efficiency. The Wizards struck out on every GM candidate they pursued, giving you an insight into how dysfunctional and screwed up that organization is. For such a big and powerful city, the Wizards aren’t and haven't been producing. As bad as the Wizards are, they can laugh at their trade partner from last year, the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns traded TJ Warren, a young player who averaged 18 points a game and was the 8th most efficient 3-point shooter, to Indiana for CASH! Now Warren was only being paid around $12 million per year, so he was outperforming his contract. Why would the Suns, who can’t attract any free agents anyway, try to clear cap space??? They just gifted an important piece in Warren to the Pacers. Then, they traded the 6th pick for Dario Saric and the 11th pick. Saric isn’t a bad player and he is cheaper than Warren, but he’s not the same caliber of player. Then in a weak draft, at #11 they reach for Cam Johnson a 6’8” 23 year old shooter from UNC who has an injury history. Except they already have an up-and-coming player in Mikal Bridges who is a better player than Johnson and is also a 6’8” ish shooter. Oh and Johnson is actually older than Devin Booker. It makes ZERO SENSE. Luckily, the Suns weren't done.
At #24, Ty Jerome has certain NBA qualities but he’s more a jack-of-all-trades than a specialist. He can shoot the ball well on occasion but he has not demonstrated consistency from deep. He’s far from a plus athlete which is a problem given Devin Booker isn’t one either. Jerome won’t solve the Suns drought at point. But, the Suns got more than Jerome. They picked up Aron Baynes a career back up with a market contract. In the process the Suns gave up their Milwaukee Bucks first round pick which is lottery protected for next season. The Suns could have selected Coby White or Jarrett Culver to solve their PG woes; instead they decided Jerome was the answer.
As an aside, my least favorite NBA analyst, Kendrick Perkins, showed his former teammate James Jones love and RAVED about the Suns Draft and trades. Here’s the thing, I’m a huge James Jones fan dating back to watching him play for the Miami Hurricanes and later the Heat. But, Perkins let his friendship cloud his objectivity. Here’s how the major websites graded either the Cam Johnson pick or the Suns night on the whole: CBS (Johnson pick was a D, Suns got a D overall); HoopsHabit (overall C); Sporting News (F); ESPN (Bobby Marks called the Suns the biggest losers on the night); Sports Illustrated (chose Suns as Loser and said: “I have no idea what the Suns are doing.”). Perkins further demonstrated his lack of objectivity by complimenting Jones for trading for Sabitch or Savicheck or Savage from Minnesota. While Dario Saric is a decent player, Perkins either didn’t know who he was or couldn’t be bothered to learn his name.
Picking at #12, the Charlotte Hornets chose PJ Washington, a decent 6’7” player who has an outside-inside game. That would be fine except they chose the same exact player the year before in Miles Bridges. If you were comparing PJ Washington to an NBA player, it would be Bridges. The Hornets have sucked for years and it’s no secret why. Since 2012 (they chose Kemba Walker in 2011), the Hornets have had a lottery pick every year except 2016. None of those lottery picks has been worth a damn.
At #13, Pat Riley and the Miami Heat really screwed the pooch. Riley tried to reload after LeBron James left and saddled the Miami Heat with terrible contracts and middling players. They still won’t have cap room until 2020. When you are saddled with bad contracts, you must draft well, but in trying to just reload, Riley traded several picks away. And, he’s failed to hit on most of his picks with the exception of Josh Richardson. Too often, Riley goes to what he knows and that’s how the Heat drafted Bam Adebayo, an active big, but one who is very limited. Bam is a mini-bust (he's a limited player). Bam went to Kentucky, Riley’s alma mater. This year most analysts projected the Heat to take PJ Washington from Kentucky, but when Michael Jordan stole that middling Kentucky prospect, Riley REACHED for Tyler Herro, another middling Kentucky prospect. Herro may well be a decent deep shooter, but he lacks the skill and ability to make an impact in the NBA and this was a serious reach. Rather than tap the players with the biggest ceilings (or punt on this year’s draft by trading into next year's Draft), Riley did his alma mater a solid.
Riley did acquire an asset in KZ Okpala, a 6’9” wing from Stanford at pick #32. Okpala averaged 17 points and 6 rebounds a game for the Cardinal. He’s a slasher but he shot well enough from 3 (38%) to profile as a “Three-and-D” player. This was a good pick up. It looked like the Heat weren’t done, but the New York Post had this to say: “Then, rather than accept the gift that Bol Bol was at 44, they traded him to the Nuggets for a future second-round pick.”
The Boston Celtics took a very measured approach to the Draft after what looks to be an awful offseason. Basically, it appears as if Danny Ainge failed to secure either Kyrie Irving or Al Horford, alienated Terry Rozier through a lack of real playing time, alienated every young star by offering them in a trade for Anthony Davis and/or by force-feeding Gordon Hayward the ball. And, the progression of picks Boston owns really haven’t been transformed into difference makers. At #14, Boston chose Romeo Langford, a scoring guard who might be decent once he develops a left hand (yes, I’m serious) and improves upon his 27% from the NCAA 3 point line. Later, Boston chose Grant Williams, a “big” who’s shortish and not athletic, but who is a winner. I just don’t know where Williams fits. But, Boston may have hit on 2d Rounder Carsen Edwards, a stone-cold scorer/shooter from Purdue. Any player who can put up 40+ in the Tournament has real talent. Edwards is a different player from Isaiah Thomas, but both are explosive scorers.
NOTES: It’s hard to lay down an opinion on Nassir Little who fell to Portland late in the first round. The fall corresponds with Little’s lackluster performance at UNC. But, Little was a top-5 kid coming out of high school. In a sense he’s a bit like Cam Reddish, in that they both fell from their lofty perches before college started. But, they’re different players. Little is an energy bunny, decent defender, good rebounder, but developing as a scorer. Reddish is a perimeter player through and through and needs his shot to fall or else his value is difficult to see.
I’m a Villanova mark, but Eric Paschall is a very nice pick up for Golden State. It’s easy to compare him to Draymond Green but there’s a ton of similarities. Paschall is a better shooter and is more explosive than Green but he’s not the same caliber defender. He is long and rebounds at a high level. He’s a more willing shooter than Green so he might see immediate time. It’s hard to find a better player comparison for Paschall than Green. The savage in Golden State hopes Paschall develops into a reasonable facsimile of Green, making it easy for them to avoid paying Green next season. The Warriors other picks were not memorable. I don’t see Jordan Poole developing into a rotation player.
Bol Bol is an intriguing pick for Denver who took projects 2 years in a row (Michael Porter Jr.). Son of Maunte Bol, Bol is a skilled 7’2”. He can put the ball on the court and has decent range. Sure he’s way too thin but he’s got unicorn characteristics as he demonstrated in 9 magical games for Oregon, averaging nearly 20 points a game. And, Bol played against decent teams in those 9 games (Syracuse, Iowa). Even if teams weren’t sold on Bol’s skills, he’s a rangy, flowing 7’2” player who, if nothing else, gives you blocks every night out. Denver got a steal and i’m really disappointed the Heat traded him away (or didn’t choose him). Bol has the highest ceiling of any player after Cam Reddish.
I wasn’t a fan of the San Antonio Spurs picks, but keep in mind they bring back DeJounte Murray, a young PG who was thought to be a potential All-Star along with last year’s first rounder Lonnie Walker and a reclamation find in Derrick White who had a breakthrough playoffs run. They drafted Luka Samanic, a skilled 6’11” kid who played well in Day 1 of the NBA Combine and then wisely shut it down. He’s not the second coming of Luka Doncic, but he might be a player. In the second round, the Spurs grabbed Quinndary Weatherspoon, scion of NBA mini-legend Clarence Weatherspoon. Q is a well-rounded explosive scorer and just might stick.
Guys who weren’t picked: Naz Reid from LSU. Reid is a 6’10” wide bodied player who has skills. Plus he’s very long. He can step back and make deep 3s and also step into the paint and mix it up. The biggest ? about Reid was his motor, but this is a powerful stretch 4 who should be able to defend pick and rolls. He’s a more skilled, less explosive Bam. He was signed by the Timberwolves to a 2-way contract. Lu Dort is an excellent scoring guard from Arizona State. He was the freshman of the year in the Pac 10 and he’s a real two way scorer. Dort signed a 2-way contract with Oklahoma City.
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Miami Hurricanes 2018 — A Look Back and Ahead (28/12/18)
There’s no question Miami’s 2018 season was an unmitigated disappointment. The team and its leader took a big step back. Somehow Coach Mark Richt wasted the nation’s No. 2 DEFENSE in a 7-5 season that was ugly.
First, the good things.
A) Manny Diaz. It wasn’t a flawless season as the defense failed to come up with key stops in a few games and it wasn’t a rerun of the turnover fest that was 2017. That said, Diaz showed maturity in molding the defense. He parlayed his success into a coaching gig at Temple — a reverse Al Golden move if you will.
B) Jaquan Johnson, Gerald Willis, Joe Jackson, Sheldrick Redwine. All of these men had very good seasons. Willis was monstrous inside and without him, as seen in the Pinstripe Bowl fiasco, Miami’s run defense was not as good. Johnson and Redwine are both NFL safeties, with Redwine somewhat unexpectedly forcing himself into the draft picture. Sadly, all of these defenders are gone with uber-talented Joe Jackson almost assuredly declaring for the Draft.
C) Miami’s LB Corps. The three juniors had solid seasons and although they didn’t progress as hoped, they at least maintained their very good status quo. Mike Smith showed talent as well. Miami could lose 1-2 of these linebackers to the NFL. Sensing a trend here?
D) WR-Jeff Thomas. Early in the season, JT was Miami’s only bona fide field stretching threat. At times, he seemed ready to assume the Santana Moss role. Alas, JT lost his mojo and eventually transferred. That's right, UM loses all of this talent. Yikes.
E) Travis Homer, Deejay Dallas, Brevin Jordan. All of these men played well at times. Homer overcame the terrible offensive line to rush for around 1000 yards. Dallas occasionally displayed his explosive talents, rushing for another 600+ yards to go with highlights on punt returns as well. Jordan flashed some of his NFL talents as a freshman TE until the lights went out on the passing offense and he suffered an injury. Freshman Cam’Ron Davis also flashed ability in limited time.
F) UM beat FSU. Of course that didn’t really mean much given FSU’s awful season.
Now, the bad things:
- The Offense. It stunk. ‘Nuff said.
- The QBs. They stunk. ‘Nuff said.
- Zero depth at TE. Miami had just 3 healthy TEs most of the season and one, Michael Irvin 3, had been hurt and suspended several times in the past,meaning he was far from dependable.
- Zero downfield plays or threats (after Thomas left). Coach Richt said during an interview that explosive plays are overrated and/or unnecessary. That's not the mindset of an innovative, exciting offensive coordinator.
- Terrible OL play.
- Terrible Punting. Sadly Zach Feagles was not the answer. Spicer did fairly well with his Australian punting.
- Awful Playcalling. Richt insists on remaining the Offensive Coordinator because he likes it. This is why Miami will never win anything significant with Richt in a dual role. Look around the country and ask how many truly successful programs have a coach who is also the full-time OC. There’s very few that come to mind. Let’s assume that Richt was once a good OC, did the game pass him by when he wasn’t calling plays for more than a decade at Georgia? He certainly didn’t seem innovative this year. Let’s assume Richt was a QB whisperer at some point in his career, he’s far from one now. There’s simply not enough time for the coach of a major program like UM to also call plays. And, we see the weakening the dual role has caused in the decline in recruiting starting positionally and now overall.
- Poor Recruiting. Miami hasn’t landed a good QB in quite some time. This is a puzzler. Going into the 2017 season, there were 2 key things quarterback recruits would have perceived about UM: (1) there’s explosive talent at UM; and (2) Richt is a QB whisperer. Despite these perceptions and the many other reasons to play at UM, Richt could only land Jarren Williams, a recruit with mixed ratings. By the time, Richt signed Williams, Richt knew Malik Rosier was, at best, a game manager and, at worst, a turnover machine who couldn’t hit most throws. Richt also knew Cade Weldon wasn’t ever going to start at QB at UM (hopefully I'm wrong here) and there were problems with the supposedly gifted N’kosi Perry. Despite knowing there were problems (or putting it in the best light, there were at least concerns), Richt could not sign an elite QB in 2017, settling for Williams and then failing to sign ANY QB in 2018. By midway through this season, it was readily apparent that Perry was deeply flawed and Williams was either not ready or couldn’t beat out Perry. Still, UM could not sign anyone. After the season, it was reported that Williams was transferring — a scary thought for depth reasons but also for the QB’s mindset. If he didn’t think he could beat out Perry or didn’t think he’d get a fair shot, then there program is officially a dumpster fire. Even without the Williams drama and Perry’s near suspension, UM still hasn’t signed a single QB. Huh? A graduate transfer at QB will only mask the issues or force the departure of Perry and/or Williams. This is a scary situation. Perhaps Richt is planning a whole year of Deejay Dallas at the wildcat.
- Replacing Diaz. UM hurriedly promoted 2 young coaches to fill Diaz’s shoes as defensive coordinator. This was an act of desperation. Neither coach has ever been a DC before and both have been coaching for just a few years. They were probably promoted in part to salvage the 2019 recruiting class which while decidedly weak, has several CRUCIAL signees at DT and in the secondary.The cynic might see Richt failing to hire a real DC because he fears that said DC would be his successor sooner than he might want.
At TE, UM will get to unleash Will Mallory and Jordan. Assuming there’s a real QB to throw to them, this is where UM could be lethal. The WRs have several 4 and 5 star players, but none of them have proved it. UM signed a top WR in Jeremiah Payton and he could step in right away. They need to sign 1 field stretcher in February or this position could be one of real concern. There’s talent here but this is a completely unpredictable group. If one or 2 emerge, and assuming UM signs a real QB, then UM could be very good.
UM’s OL will be better. They added a grad transfer at LT, Tommy Kennedy. He was coveted across the nation and should become UM’s best OL in many years. The OGs will be better too as at least one redshirt is expected to step in. There will be continuity and experience and that alone means the line can’t be worse. QB is a different matter. After the Pinstripe Bowl fiasco, Richt seemed to anoint Williams as the next starter and Richt took his share of the blame. That said, unless UM signs a talented grad transfer and/or Williams is surprisingly talented, QB is a position that will make or break the season along with the OC situation.
UM’s defense will be worse next year, but how much it drops off will determine UM's record. There will be massive holes on the DL, but UM still has talent there. And, they’re not done signing DTs to try to fill the holes left by Willis. UM’s linebacking situation is impossible to assess until we know how many, if any, will declare. If none leave, this will be a position of great strength.
The secondary won’t be that bad. There’s emerging talent at corner and returning talent at safety. We’ll see how wide the gap was between Johnson and Amari Carter. Gurvan Hall is a keeper though. UM’s kicker Bubba Baxa was shaky at first but solidified the position as the season progressed. He could be decent. UM has a verbal commitment from an Australian punter. If that happens, UM instantly improves by a game.
Richt is entitled to time and slack. He had 2 very good and promising seasons before 2018 including winning UM’s first ACC division title. And, with a QB like Rosier, its appears he squeezed the absolute maximum number of wins out of 2017. But, several issues are really inexcusable. First, when a team with the firepower that UM reportedly has suffers through a season of offensive ineptitude, that team fires its OC. Hell, teams have fired mediocre OCs midseason. Richt must be held accountable as OC. He must fire himself as OC. Miami really deserves a creative genius, preferably one who runs the spread, to utilize its offensive talents. Second, Richt shares complete responsibility for UM’s shocking lack of depth at TE, QB and DT. UM is not lacking scholarships and has been at full strength for several years, so the fact that UM was OUT OF TEs for several games this season is scary. While not as desperate, UM lacked depth at other positions where just 2 injuries would require position switches to run practices. Third, UM’s recruiting failings are unacceptable for several reasons. UM has always recruited well, even with horrible teams and coaches. There’s simply too much local talent and too much interest in the U to accept poor classes. And, everyone has been aware of UM’s needs especially at QB. At some point UM should turn to lower rated local athletes to fill holes in the class, guys like TY Hilton, for an example of a prior situation.
Next season will go a long way in determining Richt’s legacy, not just at UM but as a coach. If UM doesn’t get back to a ranked team and make an ACCCG appearance, Richt will be on a very hot seat. If that happens and he doesn’t recover, because in reality very few hot seat coaches turn it around, he will be remembered as a solid coach who could never win a big game. Sad, but true.
Are They Back? Back to What? 26/10/2018
So at the start of the season, many were asking are the Miami Hurricanes back? They came in with a Top 10 ranking off their first Division win since Miami joined the ACC! LSU quickly disabused everyone of that notion. If you looked back at last season, UM’s year wasn’t that good. They lost the last three games, barely beat a game Virginia at home and beat FSU on a miracle comeback. They did smoke Notre Dame, but that game looked more like the exception than the rule.
After the LSU game, Miami’s defense looked great, but they weren’t playing world beaters. And, the offense looked awful for a team with the athletes Miami has. It starts with the offensive line which is mediocre at best. BC and LSU illustrated that point. The QB spot has been a revolving door. A friend reminded that when you have 2 QBs you really have none. Rosier has not progressed from his exposure at the end of the last season. At best, he’s a decent runner who is wildly inconsistent, lacks touch and can’t throw deep. N’koss Perry, who many thought was there second coming of Lamar Jackson, can’t beat out Rosier which tells you a bunch. He was wildly inconsistent, was poor at making downfield reads, was indecisive and was holding onto the ball for far too long. It’s saying something that Rosier is considered the better runner.
The running backs are fairly good, but without holes they are at the mercy of the defense. Neither has the 60 yard run in them. UM’s 5 star RB, Lorenzo Lingard, struggled to find the field. The wide receivers have numerous flaws. Without Ahmonn Richards, there seems to be just one WR, Jeff Thomas, who can get separation, but the QBs can’t get him the ball. Brevin Jordan, the highly-touted TE, seems to be as advertised, but again he’s not a fully-realized player and can’t get his hands on too many balls.
At the head of this mediocrity is Mark Richt. He came in with much hype, after all he pretty much averaged 10 wins at Georgia. Sure enough he got Miami two 9 win seasons right off the bat. But, a closer look shows many issues. First, the knock on Richt at Georgia was he couldn’t win the big games. That’s definitely held true. Miami, at its best, was very good in big games. A mid-season tussle with an over-rated Notre Dame team isn’t a big game, and if it is, then Richt is your coach.
Second, the recruiting looked good, at first. Richt’s first 2 classes were chock full of top recruits, except at a few key positions, more on that in a paragraph. But, the first class was really Golden’s class, full of deeply committed Canes. And, while Year 2 looks good on paper, it looks anything but good on the field. Only 2 players are real big contributors — Jordan and DJ Scaife. The Year 3 class is ranked 20th and is chock full off 3 stars. Very few big-time players are in this class.
Third, Richt has utterly failed to find a top QB. Perry was a Golden recruit and he hasn’t shown the sparkling talent that you would want. UM was linked with a top recruit for much of last season before parting ways with him (and that appears to have been the right decision). They signed a kid from Georgia, Jarren Williams, who doesn’t seem to be anything special. He wasn’t physically ready anyway. But, there’s no top QB signed for 2019. So, is Plan D a grad transfer? This is a major issue given the talent that UM’s WRs and TEs are reputed to possess.
Fourth, during Halftime of the BC fiasco, Richt was questioned on how to engineer more explosive plays. He said: we don’t need any. We’re only down 3! Huh? Apart from the incredible idiocy, Richt is UM’s offensive coordinator and that’s a problem. UM’s offensive struggles — 14 vs. Virginia and BC — lay at Richt’s doorstep.
It’s crazy to think Richt is on the hot seat. After all, he did win the Division, right??? Miami doesn’t work that way. They lack the money to cut Richt and sign an expensive replacement. But, the focus needs to be on forcing Richt to do several things: 1) fire himself as OC and hire a young creative OC, perhaps Ken Dorsey; 2) hire an elite offensive line coach, not Richt’s holdover who hasn’t developed a single lineman apart from Tyler Gauthier; and 3) sign a grad transfer qb as soon as that is allowed.
Kawhi Trade: Hysteria & Sense (23-7-18)
When the Toronto Raptors acquired Kawhi Leonard from the San Antonio Spurs, you heard a lot of analysis, much of which praised the trade from the Raptors standpoint, but this trade created so many ripples, it deserves to be set into context. People forget but Kawhi Leonard, 2 years ago, before he got injured, was quite possibly the best basketball player on the planet bar NONE. In fact, the debate really revolved around 2 men — LBJ and Kawhi. Now, some will tell you that Kevin Durant jumped them both in 2017, but I’m not buying that. Still, even if you buy it, this trade involved the trade of the, at worst, 3rd best basketball player in his prime. And, it’s been a minute since a player of that caliber was traded (Sorry, Kyrie. Think again CP3).
How Did We Get Here?
This all starts with Isaiah Thomas. As West Coast ballers and members of the same draft class, that’s enough for a link between the 2. Kawhi had to watch as IT was ruthlessly used up and spit out by the Celtics. At the time both were coming off of injuries, but no one believed Kawhi’s were (lingering) serious while everyone knew IT’s hip was. The Kyrie-IT trade might have reminded Kawhi of the age-old adage that there is no loyalty in professional team sports no matter the player or organization. Kawhi saw the Celtics, a team on the rise and loudly applauded for having their shit together jettison loyal IT. That told him it could happen anywhere, even in San Antone.
What? The Spurs had set the example as being one of the most woke organizations in team sports, having dominated the NBA for 2 decades. They hadn’t had a whiff of bad publicity in ages, not since Tony Parker was still a ladies’ man. Or had they? Kawhi heard his head coach tell Lamarcus Aldridge, the free agent who Popovich had lured to the Spurs and promised that: (a) Pop wouldn’t leave until at least LA’s 4 year contract was up, transferring loyalty from Kawhi to Aldridge; and (b) Duncan would groom Aldridge to be the next Duncan. But, Pop candidly admitted to having discussed trading Aldridge and, oh by the way, admitted Aldridge had been no Duncan 2.0. Plus, did quiet Kawhi like how much Pop cared about Aldridge? Pop never promised to stay for Kawhi's career or prime, right?
So, the whole IT saga could have: (a) reiterated the fact there’s no loyalty in the NBA; (b) highlighted the fact that no player is immune to being used up and discarded; and (c) proved that no team is immune from being disloyal. The IT saga did not, however, apparently highlight the fact that playing for LBJ ain’t easy (as far as Cleveland went, for is the right word). In fact, name one star player who has played with LBJ as a key contributor since 2008 and emerged unscathed. Hmmm. LBJ even traded away his bestie.
The Paul George saga plays a small role in all of this. PG was an LA kid who had been traded to a small market on the verge of becoming a free agent. PG professed his undying love for LA before, during and after the trade and all but told LA, “Here I am, come on over and have your way with me.” Then, the unthinkable happened because LA either spurned PG (by not trading for him) or Oklahoma City had compromising pictures of PG and some horny catfish (I’m talking about real fish). Toronto watched PG do the unthinkable and spurn playing for LA in favor of staying with OKC. Toronto saw this and said, hey we have way better looking catfish than OKC (they don't).
I cannot explain what ran through Kawhi’s head last season. The dark cynic in me says Kawhi watched the IT saga and the more he thought about it the more his quad hurt. Under that scenario, Kawhi becomes a shirker at worst and a psychologically affected player at best. Or, his quad hurt really bad. And, Kawhi had probably played through a few bad injuries that were far worse only to watch his coach and zat Tony Parkair throw him under the bus.
Whatever happened we'll never know because Kawhi is more reclusive than Garbo? Salinger? Too old for most of you? How's this analogy, Kawhi is as responsive and tech savvy as Pop is forthcoming during in-game interviews. Regardless, he took his ball and told the Spurs, it's not me, it's you. With a loaded gun to their head, the Spurs could have offered Kawhi more money than any other team can for a 6 year period (I think) -- $220 million. Had they done that, Kawhi could have called their bluff (and still demanded a trade) which would only have complicated everything or Kawhi could have said thanks but no thanks and emerged as the Uber-hero to the world. Or, they simply realized why force it.
Who Won?
At first glance, and based on my trade philosophy that the winner of the trade is the team that gets the single best player, clearly the Raptors won the trade. (I said the same about the Kyrie trade last season). And, look at a few other considerations. The Raptors can very easily push the reset button on the whole Kawhi era next year, but, of course, Toronto having cap space isn’t the same as Miami having it. The Raptors do look like a nice team assuming Kawhi is fully healed. Their starting 5: Kyle Lowry; Serge Ibaka; Jonas V; Kawhi; and Danny Green. They would then trot out a second unit of Fred Van Vleet, Delon Wright, OG Anunoby and a few other decent guys. That’s a top 3 team in the East and competitive for 3rd place in the West. Leonard and Green bolster Toronto’s 3 point arsenal while lengthening their defense. Can you see a motivated Kawhi wanting to stop the Warriors in a spirited NBA Finals next year?
That’s a tempting portrait, but it relies heavily on a mystery: is Kawhi healthy and how much does he want to win in Toronto. I highly doubt Leonard pulls a PG so this is a high-stakes, one year roll-of-the-dice. In Toronto’s best possible scenario, it wins the East, faces a depleted Warriors team and wins it all (or in a massive and ironic twist, Toronto plays the Lakers and wins leaving Kawhi with a Durant scenario part 2). Only then, in those highly improbable situations, does Kawhi stay in Canada.
So, Toronto clearly got the best of the trade, right? Maybe. The Spurs did a decent job of getting the best assets they could when forced to trade Kawhi or lose him for nada. The Celtics weren’t offering much in the way of value and why would they with so much talent about to return. Had Danny Ainge offered one of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier along with another player, the Toronto deal might be less intriguing. Sure, DeRozan is better this year than any single young Boston player on offer, but a combination of 2 good young players might be the right direction for the Spurs (they need deep shooting and length). In that sense, the Spurs may have attracted the single best youngish asset and a solid big. They’re not the package I would have demanded (Van Vleet, Anunoby), but it’s a solid package. DeRozan is not OJ Mayo 2.0. Now, would Magic be interested in trading with the Spurs for DeRozan for some of the same young assets rumored to be offered for Kawhi? Probably not the same package as was offered for Leonard, but close. How would a 2019-20 roster of LBJ-Kawhi-DeRozan sound?
Who Lost?
Philadelphia’s Process
The Sixers lost and they weren’t in the trade. Adding Kawhi to a rival like Toronto puts Philly at a disadvantage because Kawhi (and Green) are very good fits. They strengthen Toronto’s shooting from distance and defense without losing much. The pressure on Kyle Lowry eases plus, these guys have won and that is a big intangible that many overlook. From a perception standpoint, Philly looks like it couldn’t land a star (who really thought LeBron even considered Philly). And, they still don’t have a true GM.
Still, improbably, Philly is better than last season. First, they gain a full season of Fultz. Second, they gain the sophomore jump of Ben Simmons. Third, although they lose a few shooters in Bellinelli and Ilyasova (he’ll be back eventually anyway), but they gain a complete player in Wilson Chandler. The Bjelica fiasco doesn’t look good, but they seem to have sniped a solid back-up in Mike Muscala. They’ll roll out: Ben Simmons-JJ Medick-Robert Covington-Dario Saric-Joel Embiid with back-ups like Chandler and TJ McConnell. Then they have true wildcards in Markelle Fultz, Furkan Korkmaz (he of the 40 point Summer League game) and Zaire Smith (and maybe Landry Shamet). All is not lost. But, Philadelphia has to avoid the trap of falling in love with its youngsters.
The Rest of the East
Besides the top 3 and perhaps Milwaukee, the East is moribund. There is now clear separation between those top 3 teams that teams like Cleveland and Miami are WITHOUT HOPE. The Bucks have hope, at least, because they have the second closest LeBron analog in the Greek Freak and they have other pieces like Bledsoe, Brogdon and my man DDV!
The Spurs Undented Legacy
No matter what happened with Kawhi, short of him resigning and taking the $220M, the Spurs’ aura of always getting it right is pierced. No, they didn’t get fleeced as many will claim and no they aren’t a complete non-factor this year, but the run has ended and Pop is playing out the string. Short of miraculous development by Lonnie Walker (sorry, not any time soon and I love the kid) or an unforeseen blockbuster trade, the Spurs will be mired at the bottom of the playoff race and they must play out the string much like Miami must — shedding contracts and hoping that a young player becomes the next Kawhi.
The Lakers?
I’m not adopting the Rachel Nichols argument that by not being proactive, they may never get Kawhi. The Lakers still are the odds-on faves to employ Kawhi next year, but they lose control of the unknown. Pardon the detour for a moment. It is said that Boston is a lock to dominate the East (excepting Toronto and possibly Philly. It appears Boston has so much talent that they can’t fail, but no one knows how all of that talent will mesh. Assuming full health, someone will lose shots, minutes, spirit. How will they integrate Brown, Tatum and Hayward? How will they find minutes for young Robert Williams assuming he makes the season on time? How will Rozier cope? Boston can at least try to control these variables. The Lakers can’t. They can’t control which Kawhi they get. Let’s assume for the moment that he wasn’t really that hurt and sulked his way out of San Antonio, those are traits that can’t be easily dampened. The Lakers don’t know how Kawhi and LBJ will co-exist just like OKC didn’t know about George and Westbrook until they traded for them (and then they were backed into a corner anyway). Even if LAL sign Kawhi next season, they don’t know how a possibly diminished Kawhi will fit with a possibly ascendant Kuzma-Hart-Ingram.
Yes, the Lakers preserve assets, but so what. They may be waiting for a bus that never comes or a bus that isn’t as plush as they dreamed.
The Jump Jumps The Shark. (3-7-18)
This comes from a place of love and respect. Rachel Nichols, a respected, but fringe NBA “personality” started and pushed her show “The Jump” into a position of prominence on ESPN. She deserves a ton of credit. For those who see The Jump as the NBA’s “The View,” while there are similarities between the shows, so what? Both shows are immensely popular for different demographic groups.
Nichols brings gravitas to the show. She tackles difficult social issues and is confident enough to criticize the hand that feeds her — the NBA. But, the Jump is not all about Nichols. She regularly lands excellent guests outside of her regulars. And, while some NBA stars don’t offer much by way of analysis, some are deeply insightful and entertaining. Her regular ESPN guests, Amin, Ramona, Kevin A and even Windhorst are usually stellar. I could watch Amin for hours (And the same goes for former Cavs GM David Griffen who is spectacular). Regular guests Tracy McGrady and Byron Scott are by-and-large very good analysts (i’ll explain where Scott got derailed). Paul Pierce moves the needle usually and though I’m not always in agreement, he knows of what he speaks.
But, The Jump has its flaws. Too often, Nichols beats dead horses (her 2 MVP crusade is example No. 1) and trots out several lame concepts. While I can appreciate “As the Kings Turn,” I soured on “Haywatch” immediately. And, Nichols isn’t always honest with the agendas her guests bring. For instance, Windhorst was a Cavs apologist for years and no one stood up to say hey that’s his beat (and home town) and if it becomes irrelevant then maybe so does he? Windhorst to his immense credit ratcheted back on his Cleveland bias and widened his coverage area. That makes him more valuable to the network and more insightful than two years prior.
Here’s where things got way off the track. As it became clear that LeBron was going to the Lakers (a lifestyle move by the way as has been highlighted by the signings they’ve made since LeBron signed. The move gives other teams the roadmap to make their franchises more of a family and help the player’s family grow to love the city and the franchise), Byron Scott, a Lakers lifer was beaming from ear to ear. And, he gloated as the signing emerged. Sadly, Scott did not do his job. He’s an ESPN employee, not a Lakers’ employee. And, if Scott is employed by the Lakers that needs to be highlighted frequently. The Jump reminds viewers often that, for instance, Scottie Pippen is a Bulls consultant, just as McGrady consults with the Magic. So, when Pippen refuses to criticize his employer or divulge inside information, it makes sense although it limits Pippen’s usefulness.
So let’s continue to assume Scott is not on the Lakers payroll. Scott failed to divulge what he knew about the James signing. When he refused to comment on conversations he had with his buddy Buck, known to most people as Magic Johnson, we, the viewers were being cheated. Yet, here was Scott gloating as though the Lakers had signed James and were a shoo-in to sign Paul George and trade for Kawhi Leonard. And, when those transactions fell through, at least for the moment, it pricked the balloon a bit, yet Scott was still pumping up the Lakers illusory chances.
Scott was never going to criticize Buck and that’s fine, so long as that’s not your job. You see by accommodating James, the Lakers threw their script out of the window. The Lakers suddenly cared little for developing their promising young talents. Signing LBJ would impact on the Lakers’ franchise selection, Lonzo Ball, because of LBJ’s ball dominance (not a criticism, just a fact). And, signing Rajon Rondo further impedes Ball’s development. While eyebrows were raised by the Rondo signing, because that signing: (a) makes zero basketball sense; (b) impedes Ball’s development; (c) impedes LBJ’s best style of play; and (d) hurts other players. I turn on the summer league and watch Lakers rookie, Josh Hart, running the point? WTF? Hart is a wing player and always has been. He was progressing nicely, but now they are trying to convert Hart into a PG to be what the fourth option at the position? And, the Rondo/Lance Stephenson signing (oh yeah, Lance ran the point in Indiana last year) cost the Lakers their best big/best rebounder, Julius Randle. Was that always Buck’s plan: as soon as he signed LBJ, the young player development would stop? It's going to be a sideshow as LBJ gifts through the remains and decides who comes and who goes. Forget team chemistry.
Sadly the Jump didn’t really break down this issue like it deserved. And, there was Windhorst to throw damp water on the Warriors’ signing of DeMarcus Cousins. “For crying out loud it’s not like the Warriors signed Wilt Chamberlain” said Windhorst (I may be paraphrasing here). He said the Warriors would have improved more by signing someone else. And, sure if Cousins can’t recover from his Achilles tear, it will look like a waste of money, but if he recovers, Cousins, at his best, was an ALL-NBA FREAKING TALENT. You take the team that has dominated the NBA and add a guy like Cousins, it’s another huge upgrade. Windhorst really downplayed Cousins’ ability. No, there are no more Wilts roaming the earth, but Cousins is a top 5 Center and maybe a Top 2 when healthy.
To all those fans out there who watched the Lakers fans, including Scott, gloating and throwing perfectly good baby powder in the air, the Cousins signing was a reminder that no matter who the Lakers signed, it’s still a Warriors world.
Wish The Jump would have covered these events without the blinders on like they usually do.
Also, a few Summer League thoughts:
1. It's way too early to let a disastrous shooting night affect perceptions of a player, isn't it? For instance, I went into the first games thinking Trae Young would have no problems stroking it. But, oh no, Young goes 4-20 and like 1-11 from 3 land. And he's being guarded by non-roster players. As I said in draft coverage, Young is short and small and until he understands, he'll struggle. Can't wait to watch Patrick Bevereley welcome Young tao the league.
2. Am I still right about Jaren Jackson? He had a debut like few others, getting 8 three pointers. The draft day narrative on him was that he was a very good shooter. But, when you watch his shot, it's ugly. Let's all take a chill on JJJr as a true stretch 4. He made an average of 1 three pointer a game at Michigan State. He has a push shot that scared off many people. (Couldn't stand the NBA commentator when talking about J-squared (J-trey's longtime NBA player-father, saying J deuce was a great shooter. In fact, he was a below average 39% overall FG % and 35% from 3. J-deuce was not in the league for his shooting ability.
3. As I touched on above, why have Josh Hart run the point? That's not his gig and unless you are doing it to showcase his versatility to enhance trade value, I don't approve and it will hurt his development.
4. Wow, is Bam Adebayo a stiff offensive player.
5. What a dunk by Marvin Bagley!
6. What a kick by Thon Maker!
What a Start! The World Cup Delivers. (1-7-18)
Through the first few knockout games, shockingly, venerated teams like Spain, Portugal and Argentina are home. The US broadcaster, Fox has to be crying in its beer because it lost: (a) huge stars like Messi, Ronaldo, Lewandowski and De Gea; and (b) huge fanbases in the missing venerated teams plus Germany. But, Fox has to be buoyed by the amazing games as well as the epic upsets.
A. The Host Effect. Russia’s team has energized the nation which has done a very good job hosting so far. I’ve touched on the fact that Russia was massively underrated due in large part to the fact it did not have to endure qualifying as the host receives an automatic bid. And, Russia’s team has a few young players who appear to have bright futures. It wasn’t a huge surprise that they’ve gotten this far — the prospect of spending the rest of their lives in Siberian camps gives the players wings. I would have loved to have seen the meeting with Putin where he laid it on the line for the team. The host team boost is not new, of course, but, at some point playing over their heads will catch up with them. Unexpected Star: Cherysev
B. Croatia Is Ready for its Star Turn? Croatia blitzed through the group stage and vaulted into the conversation as a favorite. It made sense, despite the team’s struggles in qualifying. Croatia has perhaps the best midfield in the Cup with Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic. They also have very solid strikers who brought diversity, experiencer and a nose for scoring. Round that out with solid defenders and an experienced and not-too-shabby keeper in Subasic. But, against a spirited Denmark team, Croatia was awful. They ceded possession for vast amounts of time to the Danes and rarely threatened them. They seemed either overconfident or listless. They can beat Russia playing this way, but very few other teams. Unexpected star: Subasic? Pivaric.
C. France is Ready for its Star Turn? Although, on paper, France has been on the short list of favorites to win the Cup, it has struggled to meet the world’s expectations. Sometimes such expectations can be unfairly inflated, but with young stars like Pogba, Kante, Griezmann and M’bappe, they really should be a top 3 team. Yet, they’ve shown their defense has sieve-like tendencies (even the Argentina game was on a knife’s edge at times). That they’ve gotten this far without strong performances from anyone other than M’bappe. In fairness, they have played reasonably well, just not up to expectations. The gaffer, Didier Deschamps cannot settle on a center-back combination and his wing backs have shown Germanic tendencies and could well be caught too far afield. Finally, as a Tottenham it hurts to criticize Loris, but he’s a mediocre keeper among the remaining keepers. The question you must ask is do you prefer Belgium or France, 2 teams with similar profiles and expectations. Young Star: Lucas Hernandez. The next Galactico: M’bappe.
D. Uruguay is not Good for the Heart. Uruguay is a team that knows exactly who and what it is. And yet they are capable of the precise, efficient and gorgeous attack that led to Cavan’s first goal against Portugal. But, they cede possession and control so easily that most of its 3 million people must have heart conditions. It’s a dangerous strategy, but it works far too frequently to be dismissed. None of their young players has really emerged but the Cup has reinforced Diego Godin’s legend. Rising Stars: Muslera, Jose Gimenez and Nandez.
E. Why Germany Lost. Many have blamed Germany’s departure on the theory that managers lose their team after an extended time and that may play a role, but the team’s composition was poor. 1. Germany fielded slow and aging midfielders. Anyone who has watched Arsenal football in the last three years knows Mesut Ozil has lost a few steps and even when he’s on, he’s neither dynamic nor interested in defending. Julian Draxler is only a part-timer at PSG. Now Toni Kroos remains elite, but Germany’s second best midfielder on the roster is actually Thomas Muller. Germany has several very dynamic midfielders, but they were left at home. 2. Germany’s fittest and match-ready keeper was Ver Stegen who starred at Barcelona. There was no need to rush Neuer back and although he’s not really to blame, he wasn’t a star either. 3. Anyone who has watched Josi Kimmich for club or country knows he strays (by design) and a speedy player can easily overlap him. 4. Germany has subpar strikers and left good options at home. Timo Werner is a solid, but far from elite striker and he doesn’t specialize in hold-up play. Muller is no longer a good striker, Brandt isn’t a pure striker either and Mario Gomez proved he’s not very good. They will rue the decision to leave Leroy Sane, among others, at home.
F. Other Young Stars. Iran’s goaltender showed real talent and at 6’5” he’s a model height. Denmark’s Simon Kjaer is not a surprise having played everywhere except the Premier League. He’s a rock at Centerback. Kasper Schmeichel is elite and he will soon move to a major club (sorry Leicester). He added drama to a game that had little tension. Sadly, his teammates couldn’t solve Subasic (usually a keeper who stops 3 PKs wins). Australia proved a tougher out than expected and so expect a few of their stars to upgrade, including Aaron Mooy.
G. Quick Predictions: Brazil ekes by Mexico 2-1 with an extra time goal. Belgium struggles in the first half vs. Japan perhaps by looking ahead, then recovers and wins 3-1. Switzerland and Sweden go to PKs and the team that starts with an S wins. Neither team poses much of a threat, but Switzerland could upset England. England and Colombia is really a very tight game. If James plays the game goes to PKs and Colombia wins. If no James, then England advances on a Harry Kane brace.
The Summer of LeBron, Again. (30-6-18)
For many people under the age of 35, LeBron James is the greatest player who ever lived. But, most people who played with or really watched Michael Jordan, agree definitively that MJ is the best. And, it’s not really close. I’m not here to debate that. For that still clear majority, the only way LBJ can strengthen his argument, at this point, is if he wins 6 titles. No other feat helps that cause, although winning an MVP at say age 40-42 might help. While LBJ possesses the ability, drive, body and team (I’m talking LBJ’s personal team) to win an MVP at that age, I doubt he’s playing that long. Sure, he might want to eclipse many of the all-time statistical records and/or play with his son (Bronnie is 13, LBJ is 33), but this assumes the grind of not being an alpha dog/winner a) doesn’t happen and b) doesn’t rob him of his desire. That look at J.R. Smith and the devastation wrought unto a whiteboard tell a large tale.
So, if we assume LBJ is motivated only by winning 2-3-4 more titles, then he has just a few options left. While it was awfully kind for people to include the Miami Heat into that fantasy, said fantasy ended when he opted out. Really no serious basketball person in Miami, not even, D-Wade, had any hope of LBJ returning to Miami. While it’s a great place for a mega superstar to ply his trade with its great weather, great clubs and great income tax, LBJ can always retire here. As for playing for the Miami Heat, unless LBJ carries enormous guilt for leaving them and/or falsely leading them to trade/draft players he supposedly wanted in 2014, there’s no way in hell he’d play here. The Heat are capped out. They lack another true All-Star, they lack the space or ability to trade for other stars and they lack the type of players (great shooters) that would be an instant fit with LBJ. Even if they could miraculously add him without losing a single key player, he would lose his mind trying to play with Dion Waiters (again), Hassan Whiteside (for the first time) and the brick tossers Miami has.
While many people thought Houston had a decent chance because of their stars and because LBJ has always wanted to play with good friend, Chris Paul, the Rockets are a doubtful destination. One, they have severe cap issues which would mean Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson would be the other starters in Houston. Two, LBJ would hate playing with Harden because Harden needs the ball. Three, Harden has been pretty clear to everyone entering Houston that it is his team and he ain’t taking a backseat to anyone, not even the league’s real MVP.
LBJ might have given a thought about playing in San Antonio, but that was only if Kawhi Leonard was still going to be there. Even if that bridge could be repaired by the Spurs, they also have serious cap issues. They’d need to clear space for LBJ and then for another player or 2 not named Lamarcus Aldridge. Likewise, Boston would have to get rid of Kyrie and then clear some cap space for LBJ. The Celtics have so many good young players LBJ would need serious explaining of how that team would play minus Kyrie. They also couldn’t add LBJ and another “star”; it’s doubtful whether LBJ sees Gordon Hayward as a star.
That really leaves three teams: The Cavs, the 76ers and the Lakers. Let’s make the easiest call. LBJ does not want to return to Cleveland. That team even after adding a young star in Collin Sexton is still light years away from beating the Warriors (or the Rockets). Plus, LBJ has had enough of increasing the value of Dan Gilbert’s wallet. Their politics do not align and LBJ probably has Gilbert’s 2010 letter memorized word-for-word, Gilbert's "heartfelt" apology fort the letter notwithstanding. LBJ can rightfully claim mission accomplished in Cleveland.
While I would love to watch LBJ deflate the massive egos of the Lakers and their obnoxious fans by choosing Philly, odds are that’s not happening. The 76ers have the cap room, the young stars, and the easier route to the Finals. Although many of the NBA experts have said LBJ doesn’t fit with Philly, that’s a load of BS. Sure, LBJ would want the ball in his hands and that would change the career path of Ben Simmons, but the 76ers would be a very solid fit. While Simmons (and probably Markelle Fultz) aren’t good shooters, that doesn’t mean they’re one-dimensional. Simmons is probably the closest thing to a young LBJ, minus LBJ’s shooting. Think of it this way: In Embiid, LBJ plays with the best big he’s ever had, meaning LBJ doesn’t need to get battered down low. Can you conjure a scarier pick-and-roll than LBJ and Embiid or LBJ and Simmons. Add to those guys, JJ Redick who would probably re-sign just to play for the wide open 3s that would be available. With LBJ, the young Sixers would be the favorites to get to the Finals out of the East. All that said, the Sixers are a dark horse.
It seems real clear that LBJ is signing with the Lakers. He feels there’s an excellent chance that he will be joined there by at least Paul George and possibly Kawhi Leonard. This prospect has to make every other franchise and their fans, except, possibly Golden State and Boston/Philadelphia, very sad. I say Boston and Philly because, they will both have easy paths to the Finals and the Warriors can tell you that anything’s possible. Boston has the edge right now on Philly, but they will have issues integrating Hayward and even Kyrie into a lineup that feels they can compete without Kyrie and Hayward. Golden State has established its dynasty and they still would be the favorites until LBJ’s new super club wins.
Fear not everyone else. Well, you still have 1-3 more years of losing on the horizon be it to the Warriors, Rockets or LBJ’s team. It’s not like anything has changed. Fans should be happy knowing there will be at least 1 new team in the Finals. It will be the re-establishment of the classic Boston-Philly rivalry. Toronto will be deluded into thinking they now have a chance without LBJ in the East any more. Apart from that, nothing’s changed. The three favorites will be Golden State, Houston and LBJ in some order.
For the fans worried that there will be a new sheriff in town or that the Lakers will be good for the next decade, slow way down.
No question Las Vegas loves an LBJ-George-Leonard Lakers team as the favorites over even the still pretty darn good Warriors. But, at least for this year, here’s why that might be a gross miscalculation. Even when LBJ was paired with Wade and Bosh, it took them a year to learn how to win together and there they each played different positions and roles. Also, this assumes that Leonard is fully healthy. LBJ and George might be a really nice 1-2 punch by themselves, but the Warriors would likely win that series. Furthermore, to get Kawhi, the Lakers will be jettisoning some very good young players, meaning Luol Deng might actually be called into action. Even with that wonderful trifecta, the Lakers still would need some key players and that might be a tad difficult.
Also, pause for a moment on the thought that LBJ will be ushering in another Lakers’ dynasty. Remember in order to acquire Kawhi, the Lakers will be trading some potential future stars from among the Brandon Ingram-Kyle Kuzma-Josh Hart group. They also won’t have high draft picks to count on. And, the peak for that triumvirate expires somewhere 3-4 years from now. Los Angeles will always have the hometown team advantage that New York and Chicago from time-to-time have had.
So, tranquilo. Where LBJ goes won't really change much the competitive balance. There will still be Golden State, Houston and the LeBrons to worry about.
NBA DRAFT GRADES (23-6-18)
Atlanta Hawks --B (Hard to grade because Young is a hit or miss player and he doesn't fit in with Schroder. The defensive liabilities are mind-blowing. Hurter seems a value pick and really like Spellman's upside, reminds me of a young Draymond Green only taller. The addition of a decent pick next year is good value for passing on Doncic and Jackson).
Boston Celtics -- B+ (Williams has talent and will learn from Horford)
Brooklyn Nets -- C (Nets landed three future projects, solid for where they picked)
Charlotte Hornets -- B- (Hornets essentially traded down one spot to pick up Devonta Graham who reminds a little bit of Kemba Walker. Miles Bridges will contribute as a rotation player).
Chicago Bulls -- B+ (Like Carter (one of the elite 8, but Hutchison duplicates Markanen's skill set a bit, right?)
Cleveland Cavaliers -- A- (Sexton is a rock star at guard, could emerge as next Kyrie)
Dallas Mavs -- A (Great pickup of Doncic, but paid for it. Brunson can play 20 mpg immediately. Like upside of Spalding).
Denver Nuggets -- A (How's that happen? They get an elite 8 at 14? Other picks are crapshoot).
Detroit Pistons -- D (Don't like picks upside).
GSW -- C (Evans has skills,fills Ian Clark's spot?).
Houston Rockets -- C (Melton has upside).
Indiana Pacers -- C (This Holiday isn't as good as the others).
LA Clippers -- C/C- (Don't like the cost of getting SGA, not sure he's got much upside, like Robinson, but they have a full backcourt already and the guy they need to move is DeAndre Jordan. Should have burnt a pick on Porter or a big, like Robert Williams).
LA Lakers -- C+ (Wagner could keep improving and be a rotation guy, provides some Randle insurance but they're different players).
Memphis Grizzlies -- B (Not a fan of Triple J, but has NBA body. Like Carter as a bulldog defender despite size).
Miami Heat -- F+ (had no pick, couldn't buy their way in and then Pat Riley is quoted as saying the Heat are closed for business and the team of misfit toys will lumber along for a few more years).
Milwaukee Bucks -- B- (love Donte, but he's a boom/bust guy, has Donovan Mitchell-type skills).
Minnesota Timberwolves -- C (Ehhh. KBD could contribute a bit though)
New Orleans Pelicans -- D
New York Knicks -- C (Think I agree with fans who booed this pick. Reminds of a Michael Beasley-type, wait isn't he on your roster? Robinson is a good gamble. They needed a lead guard though).
Oklahoma City Thunder -- D
Orlando Magic -- A (Like Bamba's present and future. He will change games right away. Frazier should have gone earlier, so decent value pick. They're still far away from competing).
Philadelphia 76ers -- D+ (muddled draft. I had Bridges as part of the Top 10, just a cut below the Elite 8. Bad move trading local boy (and his mom) away. Don't love Smith and 2021 is far away although with the Heat's trend, it might be a lottery pick. Don't understand Shamet unless he's an upgrade over Tj).
Phoenix Suns -- A+ (Aced it with Ayton (although Doncic might be the better fit), loved the Bridges trade. Suns nabbed 2 starters).
Portland Trail Blazers -- D- (Why? Do they have backcourt issues? Huh? More I think about it, the lower the grade. Should have taken Williams or Wagner).
Sacramento Kings -- B+ (Like Bagley, but needs defensive help, oh that's why you have WCS to help him).
San Antonio Spurs -- C+ (I like Walker, but he's boom or bust, there's no mid ground).
Utah Jazz - B (Think Allen fits here nicely and think he can have a career like JJ Redick).
Washington Wizards -- C- (Why pick a guy that you already have, Brown models after Otto).
Here's What It Would Look Like if I Live Tweeted the NBA Draft (Assuming I Didn't Hate Twitter) (21-6-18)
Trae Young wore suit shorts! Oh No. He'll fit in nicely with LeBron's Suit Brigade. #SuitShorts, #MaroonSuitShorts
(As you can tell I don't know how to tweet or what the rules are)
Wait Luka Doncic made it #RedEye #GreenRoom
Why did it take Phoenix that long to turn the pick in? Not that Ayton was the for sure No.1, but everybody knew Phoenix was drafting him. He'll be good, just not sure his ceiling is massive. Is it an insult to compare him to KAT?
Love Maria Taylor telling Ayton he's got 7 more stops and that he can go. #Strongwoman
What does it say about Luka Doncic that his old coach in his country wouldn't draft him? #StabbingLukaintheback #Dontburnbridges
Love the comment that Marvin Bagley was so bad defensively that he forced Coach K to play zone. #OkaforLaughs
Bagley is a very talented offensive player. Like the Bosh comparison, but see Bamba as having bigger ultimate impact.
A WOJ BOMB! Can't believe Atlanta is building their rebuild around a small guard in Dennis Schroder, sorry I now mean Trae Young. Reminiscent of Minnesota drafting Johnny Flynn and Rubio back-to-back. Doncic is a helluva new age player. Will be mentored by Dirk for a year. #oneleggedjumper.
What personal information was Jaren Jackson reluctant to share? His email address? His Burner Accounts? #RIPCAREERBRYANCOLANGELO
Memphis Sucks (sorry just retweeting Jaren Jackson's burner account)
Don't understand why Jackson went over MOBAMBA (not a re-tweet)
So Jackson made basically 1 three pointer a game. Wow! See him as being a solid pro, but think Bamba, Sexton, Bridges and Porter will be better.
Nice family the Jacksons. Totally forgot Jaren Jackson Sr. as an NBA player
Trae freaking Young went 5th. #Betterhaircut Those shorts are lottery picks. Dallas gave up a lot depending on protections. With Harrison Barnes, Doncic and who else? #Atlantaowns2019Draft
Good move Orlando. Now trade everybody else. (retweeting Elfrid Payton's burner account or his real one, not sure)
Hey don't trade me (retweeting Hezonja's tweet)
Just noticed the cap kids. Cute kids. Wendell Carter is a nice, dependable player. He's well-rounded, meaning he can play low post defense. Has to be smartest top 10 I can remember with Carter, Bamba and few others. Carter has lower ceiling than the rest, but he will play for a decade plus.
Like Sexton a bunch. He's an elite guard. Not quite Kyrie, but he could be a star in a few years. But, doubt this keeps LBJ at home. #ShivDanGilbert
Don't see Knox as an elite player. (retweeting numerous Knicks fans). He can score the basketball. See him as a poor man's Michael Beasley. #sleeptightKnicksfans #PoormansBeasley
Sixers dilemma: Hometown Boy or Porter? It's Mikal! #GoNova
Bridges has low-bust potential because he's such a good defender and such a good catch and shoot shooter.
OK. I'm done.
The World Cup: A first Glance (21/6/18)
After all the teams have played at least one game, here's what we've learned:
(1) Saudi Arabia is really bad and Russia is more dangerous than its ranking. There was little reason to be excited by the event's first match. Sure, the host is quite properly highlighted in the opening match, but this one had zero compelling interest. And, Russia's mauling proved that much. It also proved that Russia did not deserve its absurdly low ranking. The host does not have to face qualifying, so Russia did not have to face any team with anything on the line, but as a major country and as a European team, it was almost certainly far superior than its ranking (70th). Add in: (a) its home country advantage; (b) its familiarity with the pitches and cities; (c) its decent sprinkling of talent in Europe; (d) the unstated but unmistakable threat communicated by Putin (won or die -- you can see it in his eyes and in his drug programs); and its unbelievably soft draw, and there was almost no doubt that Russia would advance to the knockout stage. It helps that Egypt was far weaker than many thought notwithstanding Mo Salah and that Uruguay looked plodding and generated almost zero offense.
(2) Most of the Favorites Looked Poor. There were shocking defeats, yes a tie can be a defeat. Brazil, Argentina, Spain (more on that game later), Germany (yes more on this one too) and even France looked poor in winning. Now it is just one game, but supporters on those teams all have reason to worry. It was great though to see tiny Iceland reproduce its stunning performance at Euro 2016, at least for a game. When Argentina scored, it seemed highly doubtful that Iceland would . . . . What, you mean they recovered just 4 minutes later? (It looked like Iran had done the same against Spain, but thew tying goal was waved off by an offsides call). You can almost feel the crushing depression that Argentina will feel if once again Messi comes up short.
(3) A word on Messi v. Ronaldo. First, there's no question that these two are the greatest players of their generation and deserve mention against Pele. But, to their supporters, it's almost impossible to separate the 2. Ronaldo is no question a better in the box scorer, but Messi is better from distance and in facilitating others. It's an interesting argument though about which player has the weaker supporting cast. Argentina's bright lights were dim while Portugal's players were at times very inconsistent. Again, one game means little. Remind yourselves of that thought Argentina. At least, the Portuguese know Ronaldo will perform well for country.
(4) Whither England? The Three Lions won against an outmatched team, but it was hardly convincing. After all, Tunisia scored a goal and the result was in doubt until Harry Kane carried them on his shield. There are some really large gaps in this squad. Kane is a galactico. Any Tottenham supporter will explain why (he carried the team to at least 10 victories this season when the result was clearly questionable), but after 4 unparalleled seasons, he deserves mention among the best. After you look past Kane, you see real quality in Dele, Lingard and Henderson in a defensive role. But, the defenders are scary, especially when Kyle Walker earned the worst grade. Stones is a real concern there and Maguire deserves less credit than he gets. He will be exposed by a quick winger. Sterling had an excellent year, but his efforts vs. Tunisia called to mind the old Raheem. Apart from Dele, there are no creators in the midfield (oh to have Kante). Trippier continued the upswing in his play and deserves the start. Pickford may well be the best of the keepers, but he's largely untested. Here's my 11: Pickford, Walker, Dier, Stones, and Trippier. (leave Walker and Trippier to attack, while Dier stays at home to cover for Stones. Ahead of Dier is Henderson in a holding role, Dele if healthy, Lingard and then Kane with flankers in Rashford and Vardy. In fact, Kane might tuck in behind Vardy at times. The bench is awful with so many young, untested and frankly undeserving players. What has Alexander-Arnold, Loftus-Cheek done in world football? Sorry, England goes only as far as Kane carries them.
(5) Wow, What Was I Thinking About Poland? This is a team that obliterated its group in qualifying. They feature a striker who is Top 3 in the world and have a stable of experienced European players. But, they looked slower and less creative than Uruguay. Everyone in the world knows the Poles need Lewandowski and Senegal defended him like the threat he is. Poland's entire team played like they were wearing cement boots. They could not exploit the many times that Senegal over-extended its attack because their midfield players could not control or advance the ball. No question, Senegal is better than many expected and they benefitted from an own goal and a terribly mistimed player entry. I was surprised that Glik and a few others did not feature, so I would expect big changes.
(6) Belgium Fits the Bill. Belgium was one of the few favored teams that made the expected statement in their opening match. After a frustrating 40 minutes, they finally opened the door against a clearly overmatched Panama. Belgium showed its class in the midfield as it features 2 players in Hazard and De Bruyne who are among the top 5-7 midfielders in the world. While Panama employed the expected tackle and foul Hazard scheme (the same thing happened to Neymar but Brazil and he had no answers), Belgium's other playmakers adjusted and got the ball to Lukaku in spaces where he really is a world class player. Belgium has been surpassed by France as the dark horse favorite, but this team has excellence from 1-11. They have a back line with 2 defenders who play together all year at Tottenham, a stalwart in Courtois and a plethora of attackers to call upon. As long as the task isn't too tall for Roberto Martinez (I hope not), Belgium will feature in the semis.
(7) What in the world happened to Germany? First, this is the best and most sustained effort I've seen from El Tri in years. They deserve the win. But, Germany looked nothing like the defenders. They displayed zero quality in the midfield. The gaffer made so many tactical decisions, he deserves some of the blame. Why start a questionably healthy Neuer when Ter-Stegen had a legendary season for Barca. He failed to rein in or replace Kimmich, an otherwise excellent player, when he was constantly out of position. He paired the very plodding Khedira with Ozil and Draxler, none of whom has the attacking spark or quickness of a Leroy Sane. The strikers at Germany's disposal are at best mediocre. Low learned nothing from Muller's year at Bayern when he much better as a creator than as a goal scorer. Oh to have Sane's pace. Low must adjust and do so very fast. Here's my 11: Ter-Stegen, Kimmich, Boateng (he offers better cover for Kimmich's frequent misadventures), Hummels (he's not the Hummels of 2016 though), Hector, Kroos, 'Khedira, Muller (put him right behind Werner), Werner, Goretzka (one of the few relatively, in-form, youngish attackers), and Reus/Gomez (Gomez is the first sub if the attack is struggling. Germany is in real trouble here and they have to regroup and commit to the Brandt, Benders, Goretzka, Kimmich, Gnabry generation for 2022.
The NBA DRAFT: A quick look ahead! (20-6-18)
Quick Notes the day before the Draft!
(A) Cleveland, please don't ask LeBron who you should pick. He convinced Miami to draft the great Shabazz Napier while he was fully intending to leave the Heat. If asked, he might admit he was only shivving Pat Riley before Riley did it to him in 2020 after the Heat's 5th title.
(B) Luka Doncic is the real deal and should be among the Top 5 picks. The only reason Sacramento shouldn't pick him at No. 2 is because they will have reverted to the old Kings and intend to package the No. 2 pick with Willie Cauley-Stein for Dwight Howard or Luol Deng.
(C) So the Nets landed Dwight Howard to gain cap space. Uhh why? Sure, they play in the biggest market and they have a great stadium, but so what? Wait was I talking about the Knicks or the Nets? Hey Brooklyn, talk to me after you can use your own draft pick again. No one is coming to the Barclay's Center to play with Spencer Dinwiddie.
(D) Wendell Carter is a very good player. There aren't many concerns about him. While he's not as mobile as some of the other bigs, his profile as a more traditional low post player isn't a bad thing. He rebounds exceptionally well, creates his own shots at numerous spots and he is the ultimate team player. He'll be one of the least heralded of the elites, but he'll deliver. Hmm. Maybe Karl Malone is his ceiling.
(E) Collin Sexton is a hell of a player. He doesn't shoot from distance as good as Young, but he's more NBA-ready and more complete than Young. Young could be the next Chris Jackson or the next Jimmer. Thing is, he lacks ideal size in both height and weight. There's a reason he suffered once teams accounted for him, but if he grows and adjusts, his ceiling is a rich man's Nick Van Exel.
(G) Puma, what the hell are you doing? They were awfully per$ua$ive to some top guys. Now, associating with Jay-Z helps, but really, they might be wearing some really bad shoes for a while. I'm sure the other rookies are thankful, because now there's more money from established houses that's likely to spread around. After all, if Zaire Smith is getting paid, why not Mikal Bridges or Miles Bridges for that matter.
(H) I don't see Atlanta drafting Doncic. I think they'd rather have the Clippers 12th, 13th and say Tobias Harris. Let's face it, Atlanta is in a complete rebuild.
(I) Poor San Antonio. It seems like Kawhi is gone, but if I'm San Antonio I'm not trading him to the Lakers unless that's the best offer on the table. The Spurs need to realize they are in a full rebuild either with or without Pop. Gut the team. Pick from these offers: Philly's No. 10 pick and say Dario Saric or Fultz; Boston's next year's pick, this year's pick, and Jaylen Brown or Terry Rozier + someone else; Lakers: a future No. 1, Kuzma or Ingram and Ball if he's liked or Josh Hart; Cleveland: the No. 8 pick, Kevin Love and a future pick. One of these will win the day, but for San Antonio not the trade.
My Top 5 (in order): Ayton, Doncic, Bamba, Bagley and Porter. The Top 8 players are all really good though I'm not as high on Jaren Johnson as most. Once you get to Trae Young, there start to be question marks. It feels like there are the Top 8, then a huge drop-off, except for Mikal Bridges, and then some really good sleepers (my Villanova boys for starters) and a few second round steals (Brunson,
A Shout-out to Villanova (12/4/18)
A Mini-Dynastic Run
College basketball dynasties are a lot different from NBA dynasties and even from college football. 2 national titles in 3 years is exceptional for college basketball this century with so much free movement whether it be from the one-and-done phenomenon or the explosion in talented graduate transfers. Villanova benefited greatly from the meshing of terrific classes which resulted in under-rated players staying 3-4 years. The team that won in 2016 had several senior leaders in Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu, players who will not be NBA regulars. They and super juniors Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds passed along the Villanova way to young players who would star this year. But. among all of these great players, there may be only 1 lottery pick (see below). Even last season’s star, Hart, is hardly a sure thing to feature in the NBA after a modest run for the Lakers this year..
Early in this 2017-18 college basketball season, Jay Bilas, a Duke graduate, said that Villanova needed to do more to convince him that they were worthy national title contenders. Really??? Normally when preseason polls label a team with a Top 5 ranking, it means that the team was considered a favorite to win it all. And, that’s just what Villanova did, you snobby Duke elitist. (Normally Bilas is fairly neutral and fairly sophisticated in his analysis). That slur aside, Villanova was rated highly most of the season.
And, for most of the year, Villanova was a machine. They would typically go into half-time with a comfortable 9-12 point lead. Then, early in the second half they would expand that lead to 20 over a 4-8 possession run. Apart from several good conference foes, Villanova had not faced off with many of the other elite teams. Plus, Wright was loath to play more than 6-7 players leading to depth problems that were easy to exploit.
That said, as the Finals bore out, Nova's 6 rotation players all could shoot from the outside. Plus, they had several excellent low post options, including Omari Spellman, Eric Paschall and Jalen Brunson. Their point guard was exceptional at sealing his man and then working well to the inside/middle. This gave Nova a reliable scorer whenever they needed a basket. Nobody was better at it than Bunson.
Jay Wright executed a masterful coaching plan. Rather than use the three-quarter-court press he’d used the prior few seasons, Nova rarely used that press to save its players’ energies and fouls. He rested guys masterfully. And, when they suffered injuries to Phil Booth, promising freshman Jermaine Samuels and freshman guard and Ryan Arcidiacono-lookalike, Colin Gillespie, he managed the roster expertly and kept them focused despite a few upset losses. Wright also convinced Wooden-Award winner, Brunson, to play his way and once Brunson bought into the system, the die was cast.
Mikal Bridges, their sensational 6’7” wing who is likely to be picked around 10th in the NBA Draft, was another source of go-to baskets. He is an excellent slasher and a deadly 3 point shooter. But, his efficiency was incredible as he nearly achieved the 90-50-40 line, going 85-51-44. Bridges is a plus defender, because he’s an excellent team defender covering breakdowns, deflecting and/or stealing a ton of passes and using his wingspan to become a solid shot blocker. He didn’t have his best defensive performances in the Final 4, but Bridges can defend almost any player 1-5. Bridges’s NBA ceiling is high and I believe he compares with Kawhi Leonard. You heard it here first.
This run, which is not yet over, was special, as most recent winners were only a legitimate threat to repeat if their recruiting classes were exceptional. That’s not how teams like Xavier, Gonzaga, Wichita State and Villanova can or do operate.
Villanova, A New Blue Blood? Nope.
Has Villanova become a blue blood? If so, has any team fallen from, that perch? The answer to No. 1 moots No. 2. No, Villanova does not become a blue blood by virtue of this mini-dynasty. All of the acclaimed blue bloods have deep and long histories of dominance. UCLA has all of the John Wooden wins along with a semi-recent title. UNC and Kentucky have had sustained excellence for years. So, too has Kansas dating back to Phog Allen and Wilt, is strengthened by its recent dominance of the Big 12 and its win in 2008. Duke is a blue blood more for its 40 year run than for any long ago excellence. Many would include Arizona (sorry, too few championships and no history), Indiana (too inconsistent), Louisville (way too inconsistent) and Syracuse (close, but K trumps Boeheim).
Sure, Villanova has 3 titles and it has bubbled up to the top before (going back to the days of Howard Porter), like in 1971-72 when it reached the Finals only to lose to UCLA. But, Nova, unlike the other programs, is usually considered a plucky underdog, not the fearsome juggernaut that it has become. A blue blood is a team that would be considered a betting line favorite at home all things being equal. But, blue bloods reload and Wright, despite all his success and stature, is not landing the one-and-done players. Then again, its recruiting budget is too small. If Wright adds another title, then we can revisit this premature discussion.
Ok, But Can It Contend Next Year? Maybe.
Let’s assume that Brunson and Bridges are both irrevocably bound for the NBA, because if one is not, then they will definitely be national contenders. Here is what Wright will roll out next season.
Wright will play Spellman at the 5 and Eric Paschall at the 4. That’s a formidable front court combination right there. Spellman showed he is more than a big body. He is a legitimate rim protector at 6’9” and a rebound machine. There are few players like him in the NCAA before we talk about his ability to knock down threes. With another season of refinement, Spellman will be a mid-1st round pick next season. Paschall very nearly became the MOP as he was the star of the game versus Kansas. He is an intriguing player. At around 6’8”, he can guard most bigs and he can help with rim protection. But, he may well have become Villanova’s best defender as he proved he can guard smaller, seemingly faster players, like Texas Tech’s Keenan Evans. On offense, until late this year, Paschall was one of those players who would make a stunning move to the rim and then miss the finish. But, he became a reliable three point shooter and his finishing improved. He may hold the key to where Villanova ends its season. Behind them, Nova has Cosby-Roundtree, a player who has yet to hit his stride, but who has ability and decent size. Nova signed Cole Swider, a 6’7”, Top 40 kid who may bring some needed size.
In the backcourt, Villanova will have DiVincenzo guard the three position and go with a three guard lineup of DiVincenzo, Booth and Gillespie. They think they know what they have in the upperclassmen, one a candidate for Big East Player of the Year in DD, who has athleticism to spare and who can get streaky hot. Booth needs consistency but he’s definitely shown the ability to be an impact player. Even if Gillespie develops slowly, Nova has incoming Jahvon Quinerly, a highly-rated lead guard. Wright thought Jermaine Samuels, a well-regarded wing would contribute more than he did but injuries stymied his development. If he gives Villanova an option at the wing, they will be more likely to be in the race. Nova also has incoming guard, Brandon Slater, a Top 50 player.
Villanova can be a big-time team next year, but they need a few pleasant surprises. They have to replace — yet again — 2 very good players. They’ve done it before, but will their understudies give them a reasonable facsimile of Brunson and Bridges? Probably not, but who knows who walks through the door in the Fall.
The WWE Landscape After WM34 (10/4/18)
As has become tradition, the WWE books an outstanding Raw for the first show after Wrestlemania and New Orleans was no exception. New faces were welcomed, a star retired and new storylines emerged on Raw. But, Smackdown saw just on e introduction, although that duo debuted with impact; instead Smackdown presented a dream match — AJ Styles vs. Daniel Bryan.
1. Who is in the title picture for the major male belts. Both shows feature three stars who seem to be vying for the flagship belts. On Raw, it became clear that Lesnar will drop his belt to Roman Reigns in Saudi Arabia who will then enter into an extended program with Samoa Joe. Who loses here? WWE Creative clearly does not want an immediate return to Braun Strowman vs. Reigns as there’s a been there, done that. But, I don’t see Reigns being a transition champion. Joe is a loser because he had the best match with Lesnar among any of the names mentioned here, but he won’t get the belt anytime soon. Guys like Finn Balor, Daniel Bryan and other would-be challengers, the latter only if traded to Raw, also won’t get to have a defining David vs. Goliath match against Lesnar, which is a real shame. Meanwhile, Aj Styles had his dream match vs. Bryan interrupted by Shinsuke, an entirely too predictable way to protect Bryan and Styles. Kudos to WWE for immediately putting Bryan in the title picture and booking a dream match even if Bryan had wrestled Styles previously. [With Bryan’s return, does this clear the way for Kota Ibushi and Kenny Omega to rejoin WWE and fulfill their dream matches?]. There seem to be fewer losers in the Smackdown title picture and the only thing guaranteed is more dream matches. The Styles-Bryan match, while criminally short was awesome.
2. On the female side, the title picture is impossibly complicated. Hotshotting the belt off Charlotte and onto Carmella was a great way for the newcomers to make an impact, but the act cheapens her win over Asuka. We don’t have a clue who will feud with Carmella, we don’t know where Asuka goes from here, we don’t know how quickly Ronda Rousey gets a title shot and we don’t know who will challenge Nia Jax. The women’s division got much deeper and that’s a good thing but it requires the addition of a tag belt to help with storylines. What happens to the 4 Horsewomen? Will they ever feature as a faction? Whither Absolution without Paige? And, top performers like a Becky Lynch seem buried by the new additions.
3. What about the mid card stars? Seth Rollins has been a fast-rising star of late, which is great, but how does that affect the soon-to-be-returning Dean Ambrose? It’s clear the Shield reunion will be backburnered until after Reigns is out of the Universal title picture. Stars like the Miz, Finn Balor, Randy Orton and Bobby Roode deserve better fates, but for now they are tied into low-simmering feuds. The roster is so deep that there’s nothing for John Cena to do.
4. Why was Precious Paul Ellering dumped by the Authors of Pain and is that going to lead to a story? I'm not sure who AOP pick a fight with, maybe the USOs and then they can ease into the title picture. They looked off in their debut; hopefully that was just the product of nerves.
5. Who will feud with Rusev and will he be a face or heel after the crowds’ adoration of the Rusev Day gimmick?
6. Is there any hope that Paul Heyman will lead a faction or just another wrestler other than Lesnar?
7. Will Cesaro ever break the singles glass ceiling? Will we ever see Sheamus at the top-of-the-card again? Certainly not any time soon after being manhandled by Braun.
8. How long will we have to endure Jinder Mahal — props to him for breaking out a new character and for re-shaping his body — because he’s not very good?
9. Where is the creative team going with the fits and stops of the Balor Club? Are they going to be a new badass faction — if so move them to Smackdown post haste?
10. While it’s good to see a feud like Bayley and Sasha Banks that doesn’t revolve around the title. It’s yet another sign of women’s division progress. That said, can we book a hair vs. hair match to wrap this long-simmering feud up?
11.It’s nice to see Jeff Hardy healthy again and we know it’s only a matter of weeks until he’s drawn into the Woken storyline, but who is on the other side of that feud?
12.We finally turn to Kevin Owens and Sami Zayn who have delivered gold the past few months. While the creative team can keep our interest on them earning their jobs back, at some point there has to be an end. Unfortunately, they can’t fight forever.
13. Sadly, creative made a few big mistakes. First, they continued to bury Elias after he was obliterated by the returning Bobby Lashley. I may be one of the few people who’s not that amped by Ashley’s return even though he has improved while he was away. Second, the No Way Jose conga line was eerily reminiscent of Adam Rose, right down to the inclusion of a rabbit. Is NWJ’s shtick that different from Tye Dillinger’s shtick? Third, how does Balor Club beat the Revival clean a few weeks in a row only to lose when it matters? The Revival have been criminally under-used.
COMINGS & GOINGS. I’m pretty sure the USOs and Naomi are heading to Raw. We might see Banks and Bayley go to Smackdown. Balor and his club would be best served if they moved to Smackdown, but we don’t always see that type of logic. Natalya could use a fresh start as could Gable & Benjamin who have been screwed out of a title run. Maybe the Bar could liven the Smackdown scene. Please save Elias from more Raw embarrassments. The Miz needs to face his comeuppance from Daniel Bryan, but does the Miztourage follow?
WrestleMania34 Reviewed (9/4/18)
Last night, the WWE presented its Super Bowl, an oversized Pay Per View, designed to showcase the best wrestlers and best storylines. At 4 plus hours, the show was a bit overlong and the best moments were in the middle, not the end of the show. The WWE benefitted from 2-3 late developments: (1) the signing of Ronda Rousey; (2) the clearance for Daniel Bryan to return to action; and (3) the return of the Undertaker. Unfortunately, Bryan’s clearance came so late in the day that the WWE couldn’t really throw Bryan into the main event as he deserved. Given the fragility of his health, the WWE needs to vault him immediately into the title picture, so dream matches versus: Sami Zayn, Kevin Owens, Shinsuke Nakamura, Bobby Roode and AJ Styles can happen. There were surprises, but the creative team passed on several surprises that could have blown the roof off of the Alamodome. As good as the show was there were some really poor decisions made.
In addition to improper spacing and pacing, the WWE underutilized the Undertaker who appeared for all of ten minutes, most of which was consumed by his entrance. John Cena was caught in an awkward situation that did nothing to further his legacy. There were no huge returns to spice up the show. And, the WWE creative team destroyed the credibility of: Elias, the New Day, the USOs, Sami Zayn and Kevin Owens, Sheamus and Cesaro. So, thanks for that.
Don’t get me wrong there were some great moments. Charlotte and Asuka was a legit 4+ star match, but there was almost zero build-up and Asuka’s monster streak was cast aside like yesterday’s newspaper. Sure, the streak was built mainly in NXT, but still, going nearly three years without a loss was amazing.Yet, the WWE did nothing like having a count down out count up clock. The streak was rarely mentioned. And, it makes sense that Charlotte broke the streak. Who else on the card has the credibility to break it? Maybe Alexa Bliss in a face turn, but nobody else. The match was a display of high risk moves, combined with good selling and a great one-armed finish. Charlotte versus Ronda Rousey has o be the program for next year’s Mania.
The US title match was your typical fatal fourway with everybody using their finishes, brokering and breaking alliances and featuring numerous false finishes. The men in the match tried hard, but Jinder Mahal again? Why not Rusev? The fans really dig the Rusev Day gimmick and yet this makes 2 straight PPVs when they ignored Rusev’s heat. Orion needed to drop the title and it didn’t make sense to put it on Roode again. I don’t understand the fascination with Mahal who has never drawn much real heat.
The Daniel Bryan return match was well done and many will argue the right result occurred. The WWE couldn’t turn Bryan heel and he had to go over, right? But, in doing so, the WWE greatly weakened the credibility and heat of two stalwarts, Owens and Zayn. It was downright embarrassing to think a part-timer like Shane could fend off 2 top-of-the-card stars when healthy, but certainly not after suffering a hernia and diverticulitis. Shane did his best and grabbed his stomach even as he executed a perfect coast-to-coastt on Zayn. But, as popular as he is, Bryan hadn’t wrestled in years and yet here he was executing all of his greatest hits. The finish was fine and the WWE can find ways to keep Owens and Zayn around. Maybe we will see the return of El Generico? I could have lived with a Bryan turn and an ROH faction, but the fans would have crapped all over that idea. I guess the WEWE is banking on Owens and Zayn’s ability to draw heat despite a loss that many stars could not recover from.
The Ronda Rousey match was pretty damn good. It told a real good story and it kept the WWE’s biggest investment strong. Stephanie McMahon has proved herself a capable hand in the past and this was no exception. I was surprised there were no sledgehammerers around. It was a letdown watching what used to be a money match between Angle and Triple H relegated to a sideshow. I was hoping we would have seen Angle laid out backstage and the Rock run out to partner with Ronda. Rousey looked solid on most of her moves, but she needs help on selling and movement, because her footwork in the ring was awkward. Right result and a triumph for the WWE. Roused deserves the praise she is receiving as her debut match was way better than it had any right to be.
John Cena got his Undertaker match after all. Did anyone really think the match wasn’t happening after weeks of build by Cena’s sometimes scathing solo promos? But, the WWE singlehandedly eliminated rising star Elias’s heat in a matter of a minute. Sure, we all expected that Cena wouldn’t sit still for Elias’s insults, but at least give Elias some fucking offense. No, Cena cast Elias aside so quickly that he now has zero credibility as a top guy. The “match” that followed between Cena and Undertaker only further weakened Elias. The Undertaker had a longer walk-out than a match. Once undressed, he eliminated Cena in less than three minutes. So, why was anyone clamoring for this match again? The WWE could have rebuilt Elias instantly if he’d interfered in the Cena-Taker match. Can you imagine him attacking Cena and making a supposed alliance with Taker only for Taker to obliterate him. And, was Cena a heel in the match? This whole thing was a disaster. In fact, why punish Elias?
The Triple Threat Tage Team match for the Smackdown belts was awful. The Bludgeon Brothers have all the credibility of a monster tag team from 40 years ago. For weeks they featured in Coming Soon promos and then they were fed weeks of squash matches against unknown jobbers. Then, they dallied with lower card opponents before skyrocketing right to the title picture. Why in the world were Harper and Rowan given matching jumpsuits that look like rejects from Kane’s closet? Those clownish, matching jumpsuits by themselves ruin the act. But, still the Bludgeon Brothers were fed squashes in the form of the New Day, the longest-reining tag team in history and the USOs in their first Wrestlemania moment. Really? I like Harper because he’s a bad ass who can really go, but Rowan has never stoked anyone’s passions. But, now Smackdown has two really weak champions in Mahal and the Blunderers among its 5 betlholders.
The AJ Styles-Shinsuke Nakamura match should have been a dream match, hell all they had to do was tweak and redo their New Japan match. That makes too much sense for WWE creative. They drew up a good game plan, but it was a game plan that the crowd didn’t care for. In fact, for much of the match the crowd just clapped politely. Styles and Shinsuke worked hard, but it was a slow paced match and fans in the US don’t like those matches.It was far from a dream match, but it was good. And, the Shinsuke turn was fine as he hasn’t been a huge hit as a face. I wish he had done more than a low blow, a few disrespectful foot nudges and a kinshasa.
The WWE has never really liked its Tag champions, For years now, tag champs have been losing to top singles guys in veritable squash matches. Wrestlemania was no different except it embarrassed two top workers on a massive stage. Imagine Cesaro and Sheamus’s faces when they were told Braun Strowman and a 10 year old were going over in a squash. Seamus had to be thankful that he didn’t take the pin. I know the E needed to reward Strowman, but not at the expense of the Bar. Braun Strowman plucked a 10 year old from the crowd and singleghandedly beat the Bar, the WWE’s ranking tag team. It was pure garbage. Braun took forever to find a suitable plant. There was no talk about the kid signing a waiver for the match. It would have been diabolical for Sheamus to grab the kid and threaten to break the kid’s arm until Strowman tapped. Alas, none of that happened. So, what happens now? Does Strowman take the boy with him and defend the belt? Couldn’t he have selected a road agent like say Road Dogg to be his partner. Anybody with a name and a pair of tights would have been better than little Nicholas.
In the main event, pretty much everyone thought Brock Lesnar was going to lose to Roman Reigns and the match played into that line-of-thought. Amazingly, Reigns kicked out of 5 F5s before submitting to the last one. I’ll admit I listened to this match and didn’t watch it because I thought I was about to see the WWE elevate Reigns again. I appreciate Reigns for his work, his durability and his improved promos, but I still don’t want to see Reigns as the No. 1 guy. The fans in New Orleans hated the match and I’m not sure if they hated it because they expected Reigns to go over or if they really liked Reigns and hated the punishment he took.
Was It Any Surprise? UPDATE (4/4/18)
A few weeks ago, I noted the paradox that is Shaka Smart. A coach who has been substandard at Texas, but who continues to bring in top-rated players who continue to underperform. Despite this paradox, there appears to be zero pressure on Smart to deliver, while former Texas football coach,Charlie Strong, had a bonfire raging around him from Day 1. Hmmm.
Were you surprised when Texas, they the owners of a “sterling" 19-14, 8-10 (in conference) record made it to the Big Dance? They tied for 6th in the Big 12, getting Dance cards over fellow 6th place finishers Oklahoma St and Baylor. Texas can point to a respectable schedule that included facing 6 tournament invitees out-of-conference (including powerhouse Lipscomb) and, of course, all of the Big 12 invitees. Texas went just 4-6 in their last 10 games.
I’m hardly a proponent of the Pac 10 and that was before they were all eliminated in the first round, including monumental upset Buffalo over Arizona. Foolish me, I listened to Jay Williams or some other talking head and readily agreed Arizona was on a mission. (Maybe they were but the checks just didn’t clear). USC finished 23-11, 12-6 in conference and made it to the Conference Tournament Finals. (How others below them in the Pac 10 got in is another mystery). USC mostly avoided the bad loss, except for an early season stumble against Princeton (USC was missing its star Bennie Boatwright). Plus, USC closed better than Texas, going 6-4 in their last 10 and making the conference finals, while Texas was done on Thursday in the Big 12 tournament.
Of course, USC was just one of the snubbed who had a really good complaint about Texas dancing, but, Texas wasn’t dancing for very long. Texas faced Nevada in the first round. Nevada was anything but a powerhouse. Sure, Nevada played 6 tournament teams this season (Radford, Davidson, San Diego St, Rhode Island, TCU and Texas Tech), but only TCU was ranked when they played. They would go 4-4 vs. these teams, not bad. But, Nevada was just 13-4 in non-conference and it was hardly a murderer’s row schedule in or out of conference.
What happened when the team with TEN 4 star or better recruits faced Nevada (not including Andrew Jones)? Texas lost. So, I say again, with this abundance of talent, why was Texas a one-and-done, shouldn’t-have-been-there-anyway-team?
My Guilty Pleasures: HGTV & DIY Shows (8/3/18)
A funny thing happened Thanksgiving, 2016. My aunt came to stay with us and being the 2 oldest people in the house we found ourselves frequently watching tv together. Now, my aunt didn’t really care what we watched because that’s the way she is and also because she’s borderline narcoleptic and can fall asleep almost instantaneously. Despite having those advantages and it being my house and, more importantly, my remote, I still wanted to find something we could both watch. Besides, there’s little I watch that wouldn’t be offensive or, at the very least, uncomfortable to watch with a relative from her generation.
We were headed to Food Network until she stopped at HGTV. I forget which program it was -- probably a rerun of Fixer Upper — but I was instantly captivated. We watched HGTV and DIY every chance we got over that holiday, but the test was whether I would still tune in after she left. You can probably figure out what happened. These programs coincided with a woodworking project I was making as a Christmas present for my youngest, but even apart from that happy coincidence, I was hooked. I set my DVR to capture years of these network shows and late last year I’d binge-watched nearly the last 3 years of both networks, not their shows, but virtually their entire programming. [FN. That statement shows how much time I’ve on my hands as well as the real amount of original programming.]
On the ridiculously off chance that anyone from the network is reading this, here are a few recommendations. The first is quite obviously to buy more original content. Having clawed through the networks’ offerings, I know how shallow the original content library is. I'm probably unique in that I love watching the one-off shows, like Buttefication and Wood Work. I’m sure it’s difficult to break new ground, so try plowing old ground. Resuscitate the New Yankee Workshop or green light a similar furniture building show. Also, unless there are financial reasons not to show them, why not dig deeper and show older content (I for 1 miss the Kitchen Cousins). Second, too much of a good thing can be too much. Sure we are all begging (belatedly) for more Chip and Joanna, but there’s no need to launch Fixer Upper Denver and Fixer Upper Des Moines. I’m sure the network launched FoF Vegas as a leverage play over its hosts, but, at the end of the day, FoF probably has run its course, sort of like the hosts’ marriage. Third, I’d be interested in older building techniques, like much older. It would be interesting to learn about trends or techniques in other countries, perhaps Jonathan Scott could reprise Anthony Bourdain’s role and travel to Mongolia to learn how they build their yurts over there. Just kidding, send Drew instead.
First a few notes about those shows I don’t watch.
Love It or List It and its progeny. The premise of these shows is that a designer renovates a couple’s house within certain restrictions while a realtor shows the couple new homes. At the end, the couple must choose whether to stay (the “love it” choice) or buy the new house (the “list it” part). While the original cast members were creative and fun, the show became stale and the decisions seemed a bit forced or scripted.
Texas Flip and Move. Here a group of nut jobs bid on movable “houses” [FN. this is the loosest interpretation of the word as some "buildings" are just sheds], renovate the heck out of those “houses” and compete to see who’s made the most money. While I appreciate the ingenuity of the concept, if I need help learning how to build raccoon traps out of toilet paper rolls, this is the place to come. The smallness of the places disinterests me (also the reason I don’t watch any of the Tiny House or Tiny Yurt shows.
House Hunters and its progeny. A staple of the networks, these shows revolve around a person or family’s decision to purchase a house usually in a resort location. I prefer the shows that involve building and with a recurring cast.
Flip or Flop%2